MMA

UFC 286 Pick – Leon Edwards vs Kamara Usman Prediction & Odds

Kamara Usman vs Leon Edwards
March 18, 2023 5:00 pm EDT
The Line: Kamara Usman -240 / Leon Edwads +200
(Get latest betting odds)

Leon Edwards and Kamara Usman face off for the welterweight title in the main event of UFC 286 at the 02 Arena in London. This is the third meeting between Edwards and Usman.

The last fight between these two teams came in August 2022, and it looked like Usman was going to have an easy title winner. Edwards caught Usman in a bad position though late in the 5th round, and Edwards secure the victory. Usman outstruck Edwards 83-55, and Usman also had five takedowns compared to one takedown for Edwards. 

Leon Edwards vs Kamara Usman Odds

Kamara Usman is the favorite sitting at -240 while Leon Edwards is the underdog sitting at +200 odds. 

Leon Edwards Betting Preview

Leon Edwards is coming off a victory against Usman, but he’s going to need to be a lot better here. Even though he won, Edwards was being dominated until he was able to finish the fight. Two fights ago, against Nate Diaz, he was able to secure the victory by unanimous decision. Edwards is averaging 2.59 significant strikes per game while absorbing 2.28 significant strikes per minute. He is averaging 1.39 takedowns every 15 minutes and is successful on 33 percent of his takedown attempts. He also has stopped 68 percent of his opponent’s takedown attempts. In this fight, Edwards needs to get out to a fast start, and put the pressure on Usman. 

Kamara Usman Betting Preview

On the other side of this fight is Kamara Usman who sits with a 20-2 record overall, and he won 15 fights in a row before losing against Edwards. Usman seemed to take his foot off the gas in the last fight, and that led to him getting knocked out. Usman is averaging 4.55 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 2.56 significant strikes per minute. He is averaging 3.01 takedowns every 15 minutes, and he is successful on 48 percent of his takedown attempts. He also stops 97 percent of his opponent’s takedown attempts. 

Shane’s Free Pick

The only real concern I have with Usman is with his chin. He’s 36 years old now, and some fighters aren’t able to come back from a gruesome knockout like he suffered in the last fight. I do expect however that Usman is going to bounce back well. Usman isn’t going to take his foot off the gas here, and he’s going to get the finish. Back Usman to win this fight by knockout.

Shane Mickle's Free Pick: Kamara Usman by Knockout

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Shane Mickle

I have been following sports for as long as I can remember and started writing about them back in high school. My favorite sports include MLB, NBA, NFL, CFB, CBB, and the UFC. Follow me on Twitter at @shanemickle

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