South Point 400: NASCAR Preview, Odds, Pick, Predictions, Dark Horses - 9/16/18
South Point 400: Sunday, September 16, 2018 at 3:00 pm (Las Vegas Motor Speedway)
The Line: -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds
We make our way to Las Vegas for the South Point 400, which is the first event of the Cup Championship Playoffs and is the first year this event is at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway.
Here are five drivers to consider throwing on this week’s card.
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Martin Truex Jr. - Martin Truex Jr. has cooled off big time, as he went from being a threat to win each week to finishing outside the top-10 each of his last four races. Oddsmakers have dropped Truex to +475 odds, which is a must-play this weekend. Truex won at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway back in 2017 and finished fourth at this track earlier in the year. In Truex’s last four appearances at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway, he has an average finish of seventh place. Truex clearly enjoys this track and is due for a breakout performance after some recent hiccups.
Kyle Larson - Kyle Larson is still looking for his first win of the season, but I’ll still play him at +650 odds. In five appearances at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway in the Monster Cup Series, Larson has finished eighth or better three times. Larson has an average finish of 2.5 in his last two appearances at this track, and that doesn’t include finishing third or better in three of his four appearances in Las Vegas in the Xfinity Series. There’s a great chance Larson finally sees victory lane this season.
Brad Keselowski - The fact you can get Brad Keselowski at +1000 odds must be some kind of joke. Keselowski has not only won the last two races, but he’s finished third or better in four of his last eight events. Oh, there’s also the fact Keselowski is a two-time winner at the Las Vegas Motor Speedway and has finished no worse than seventh in his last six appearances. In his last six appearances in Las Vegas, Keselowski has an average finish of 3.8. Keselowski is easily the best bet on the board this weekend given his history and form.
Erik Jones - Erik Jones has just one career victory under his belt, but he’s finished eighth or better in nine of his last 11 races. Jones has been one of the more consistent drivers the last couple of months, so there’s extreme value in scanning him at +1750 odds. Jones has two appearances at Las Vegas with an average finish of 11.5. Bottom line is the 22-year-old has been consistently in the thick of things since winning his first race, so not considering Jones for your NASCAR card doesn’t make much sense.
Jamie McMurray - If you’re looking for a big dark horse this week, Jamie McMurray could be worth a look at +22500 odds. McMurray is enjoying some of his most consistent success this year with top-10 finishes in three of his last five races, which includes a seventh place finish last week at the Brickyard 400. McMurray doesn’t have a ton of success in Las Vegas with just four top-10 finishes in his last 12 appearances, but he’s one of the more experienced drivers at this track, which includes many appearances in the Xfinity Series. We just need McMurray to build on his recent success, and he could provide a monster payout as a shot in the dark type play.