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Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks - 11/15/13

Dallas Mavericks (5-3) at Miami Heat (5-3)

NBA Basketball: Friday, November 15, 2013 at 7:30 pm (AmericanAirlines Arena)

The Line: Miami Heat -8.5 -- Over/Under: 207.5 See the Latest Odds


Lebron James and the Miami Heat collide with Dirk Nowitzki and the Dallas Mavericks on Friday night from South Beach.

Head to head, the Mavericks are 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings in Miami while the road team is 25-10-2 ATS in the last 37 meetings. The Heat are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games playing on 2 days rest, but just 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. win and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400. The Mavericks on the other hand are 21-8 ATS in their last 29 road games and 37-18 ATS in their last 55 games overall, but just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

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Miami Heat vs. Dallas Mavericks - 11/15/13


It didn’t take the Miami Heat long to bounce back from their surprising loss to the Boston Celtics last weekend as they recorded their biggest win of the season on Tuesday night, cruising past the visiting Milwaukee Bucks 118-95 to improve to 5-3 overall. With Jeff Green’s buzzer-beating three-pointer snapping the Heat’s then three-game winning streak, Lebron James and company meant business on Tuesday night, shooting a season-best 58.2 percent in their rout of the Bucks. James played a season-low 30 minutes due to a sore back, but he was still finished with a game-high 33 points while Michael Beasley chipped in with a season-high 19 off the bench.

The Dallas Mavericks continued their hot form at home on Tuesday night, this time dispatching the visiting Washington Wizards 105-95 to improve to 4-0 at American Airlines Center.  It’s still very early, but Dallas has been downright dominate at home to start the season, winning their four games by an average of 12.5 points while averaging 114.2 per game themselves. As good as the Mavs are playing in-front of their home crowd, the same can’t be said for when they hit the road as they have won just one of a possible four games but to be fair, three of those games were against likely playoff teams in Houston, Oklahoma City and Minnesota.

The over has to be the play here, given past results and how both teams have been playing this season. The over is a perfect 6-0 in their last six meetings, but more important both teams are averaging exactly 106.8 points on the season. The Mavs have improved on the defensive end lately, but that’s only because they played teams such as Washington and Milwaukee. On the season, they are giving up 103.3 per game and could possibly have the worst defensive backcourt in the NBA. Miami has also been pretty slack on that end of the floor to start the season, giving up a touch over 100 themselves. There should be plenty of scoring done tonight, so take the over in what looks like one of the stonger plays on the board tonight.

Dan’s Pick: Over 207.5

Follow me on Twitter @Dan_SCP

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