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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets - 11/18/13

Denver Nuggets (4-5) at Oklahoma City Thunder (6-3)

NBA Basketball: Monday, November 18, 2013 at 8:00 pm (Chesapeake Energy Arena)

The Line: Oklahoma City Thunder -9 -- Over/Under: 210.5 See the Latest Odds


Kevin Durant and the Oklahoma City Thunder return home to face the Denver Nuggets on Monday night from Chesapeake Arena.

Head to head, the Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Oklahoma City. The Thunder are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400, but just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games overall. The Nuggets on the other hand are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 road game vs. a team with a winning home record, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 road games and 5-14 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets - 11/18/13

Mark D. Smith-USA TODAY Sports

The Denver Nuggets come into tonight’s game having won three straight against the Oklahoma City Thunder and four of five overall, but you would be hard pressed to pick them as a winner tonight. While Denver has actually played their best basketball of the young season recently, wining four of their last six games, they clearly aren’t the team they were last year and I still think this is a lottery team when it’s all said and done. While you could argue that Thunder have regressed from last season with the departure of Kevin Martin, they still have two of the top 12 players in the NBA in Durant and Westbrook and their young players have improved significantly.

While I would take OKC if I had to choose a side, I’ll be taking the over in this one. Let’s start with the visiting Nuggets. Denver has really picked up the pace after their slow start to the season as they have averaged 108.5 points over their last 6 games and 113 over their last three. Not only are the Nuggets scoring a bunch, they are also giving up a lot of points as they have allowed 106 points over those six games, which also includes Utah 81 point outing a couple of weeks ago. In fact, if you take away their game in Utah, each of their last five games have gone over 210 points with their last two going over 230.

As far as the Thunder are concerned, they have gone back to their high scoring ways since Russell Westbrook returned from injury as they have averaged 106 points over their last seven outings. Like Denver, they have also given up a ton of points in the process and if you take away their game against Milwaukee on Saturday, they have allowed 110.5 points over their last four games.

While I don’t think it’s a forgone conclusion that this game goes over 211 total points, the numbers are on our side. The over is 7-1 in their last eight combined games and we should see an up and down type of game tonight, which means plenty of points....

Dan’s Pick: 210.5

Follow me on Twitter @Dan_SCP

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