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Dallas Mavericks vs. Toronto Raptors - 12/20/13

Toronto Raptors (9-14) at Dallas Mavericks (15-10)

NBA Basketball: Friday, December 20, 2013 at 8:30 pm (American Airlines Center)

The Line: Dallas Mavericks -6 -- Over/Under: 201 See the Latest Odds


The Dallas Mavericks hope to make light work of the visiting Toronto Raptors tonight from the Lone Star State.

The Mavericks are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400 and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall, but just 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games. The Raptors on the other hand are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record, but just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games overall.

I thought long and hard about making Dallas my premium pick tonight but things just didn't add up. I mean, shouldn't the Mavericks, who are 11-2 at home this season, be favored by more than six points against 9-14 Toronto Raptors squad? Dallas closed as 9.5 point favorites against the Memphis Grizzlies on Wednesday night, which is what I thought tonight's line would be around, especially considering the Mavs blew the slumping Grizzlies away.

Now Toronto has won three of five and two straight on the road since trading away Rudy Gay. While they did win both road games at Los Angeles and Chicago by double-digits, their game against the Lakers was Kobe return game so they had an edge there. And that same Bulls team recently lost to Milwaukee and Orlando at home, so yeah.

It's also interesting that the Mavs opened as seven point favorites and all the early money has been on them, yet the line has moved in the opposite direction. Granted, it's still very early going but this line just doesn't look right.

Despite all of this, I'm still taking Dallas, but this is no longer a game I will be betting on. Maybe I'm overthinking things because frankly the NBA has made you do that this season....

Dan’s Pick: Dallas -6

Follow me on Twitter @Dan_SCP


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Dallas Mavericks vs. Toronto Raptors - 12/20/13

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports

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