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Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets - 3/14/14

Denver Nuggets (28-36) at Miami Heat (44-18)

NBA Basketball: Friday, March 14, 2014 at 7:30 pm (AmericanAirlines Arena)

The Line: Miami Heat -10.5 -- Over/Under: 214 See the Latest Odds


Lebron James and the Miami Heat look to bounce back on Friday night against the visiting Denver Nuggets. 

Head to head, the Nuggets are 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings 5-2-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings in Miam while the home team is 9-4 ATS in the last 13 meetings and the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. The Heat are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 21-10 ATS in their last 31 games following a S.U. loss, but just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Nuggets on the other hand are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, but just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games and 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. Eastern Conference.

Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets - 3/14/14

Steve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports

Even though the Miami Heat have struggled on the offensive end this past week, I like the over in this one. Miami has averaged just 92 points over their last four games (which included an overtime period), which is nearly 12 points below their season average. So why do I like the over you ask? Well, they are due for a breakout scoring game and what better time to do it than against a Denver Nuggets team that has allowed 100 points or more in 11 straight games, which I’ll touch on more below. Plus, we know the Heat can score with the best of them as they averaged 111.7 points in their previous four games before going on their scoring slump.

Not only has Denver conceded 11 straight 100-point games, they are giving up an average of 112 in those 11, which would put them amongst the very worst defensive team in the entire NBA over that time period, right up their with the Philadelphia 76ers. The Nuggets have also improved their offense dramatically since Ty Lawson has returned to the line-up as they are averaging a whopping 117 points over their last six outings. In those last six, the average total points scored has been 231. Tonight’s total of 214 doesn’t seem like all that much now all of a sudden does it?

Couldn’t you just see a score line of 121-103 in favour of Miami in this one? I sure can. I expect the Heat to have no trouble scoring against a Nuggets team that clearly doesn’t have any interest in playing on defense as the regular season comes to a close. What more can I say...

Dan’s Pick: Over 214

Follow me on Twitter @Dan_SCP


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