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San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks NBA Pick, Odds, Prediction - 4/28/14 Game Four

San Antonio Spurs (62-20) at Dallas Mavericks (49-33)

NBA Basketball: Monday, April 28, 2014 at 9:30 pm (American Airlines Center)

The Line: Dallas Mavericks +4 -- Over/Under: 203 See the Latest Odds


The San Antonio Spurs and Dallas Mavericks play a big game four on Monday with the Mavericks leading the series 2-1.

Despite shooting 54.3 percent from the field and getting 22 points from Tim Duncan, the Spurs lost game three, 108-109 on a last-second shot from Vince Carter. The Spurs have now lost four straight games when allowing 100-plus points and are allowing teams to shoot 47.1 percent from the field in their last five games. The Spurs simply don’t look like the same team we saw from the regular season and are shooting just 32.4 percent from three. Keep in mind the Spurs made 39.6 percent from downtown during the regular season. Tony Parker is shooting 24 percent from the field and averaging 4.3 points in his last four games. The San Antonio Spurs are 45-40 ATS overall and 25-17 ATS on the road.

San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks NBA Pick, Odds, Prediction - 4/28/14 Game Four


The Mavericks had four of their five starters score in the double figures and received a clutch shot by Carter to win gave three. The Mavs are 12-6 SU in their last 18 games when scoring more than 100 points, which includes being 2-0 in this series. The Mavericks aren’t playing terrific defense by allowing teams to shoot 48.5 percent in their last five games, but the offense balances that out by shooting 47.7 percent and 36.2 percent from three. Monta Ellis has really put the Mavs on his back by shooting 47 percent from the field and averaging 23.2 points in his last five games. The Dallas Mavericks are 47-38 ATS overall and 18-24 ATS at home. 

The Spurs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 1 days rest and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games. The Spurs are 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Dallas, while the underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. 

I like Dallas to keep the ball rolling. The Spurs aren't the same team they were during the regular season and Parker can't contribute to save his life at the moment. The Mavericks are a confident bunch that is playing great defense and getting any shot they want offensively.

Take the Mavs and the points. 

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