Dallas Mavericks vs. Milwaukee Bucks - 12/7/14 NBA Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Milwaukee Bucks (11-10) at Dallas Mavericks (15-6)
NBA Basketball: Sunday, December 7, 2014 at 7:30 pm (American Airlines Center)
The Line: Dallas Mavericks -9 -- Over/Under: 207 See the Latest Odds
The Milwaukee Bucks and the Dallas Mavericks meet for the second time this week.
The Dallas Mavericks have been leaning heavily on Monta Ellis this season and stock only seemed to go higher when Dirk Nowitzki was rested on Wednesday night against the Milwaukee Bucks as Ellis scored a team-high 23 points against the Bucks, including a wild, fall-away jumper at the buzzer to lift the Mavs over the Bucks by 107-105. Chandler Parsons added 14 points and Tyson Chandler added 18 points and 20 rebounds, but with the game on the line, there was no question who was taking the last shot. Since that win, the Mavs actually went on to get ambushed by the Suns at home which snapped a five-game win streak, but they're still a healthy 15-6 on the season and 7-3 at home.
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For the Bucks, Brandon Knights led the way with 25 points against the Mavs on Wednesday while Khris Middleton added 21 off the bench, but other than another 12 points from OJ Mayo, nobody else finished in double digits in scoring. Since Wednesday, the Bucks went on to crush the Heat by 109-85 on Friday in a more balanced scoring effort as six players finished in double figures, led by Kendall Marshall who made the most of garbage time to score 20 points on seven of eight shooting. With the win, Milwaukee improved to 11-10 on the season and 6-4 at home.
In ATS trends, the Bucks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and 5-1 ATS in their last six road games, while the Mavs are 26-8 ATS in their last 34 games following a loss of more than 10 points and 2-6 ATS in their last eight games overall.
Head to head, the Bucks are 17-8 ATS in the last 25 meetings and the Over is 20-6 in the last 26 meetings overall.
The Mavs were able to sneak past the Bucks without Nowitzki last time, so you'd expect them to do the same with him back in the lineup. However, while I'm confident the Mavs will win, I think the safer play is on the Bucks with the points here because I knew they'd be underdogs, but nine points looks like three too many.