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Houston Rockets vs. Dallas Mavericks - 4/28/15 NBA Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Dallas Mavericks (51-35) at Houston Rockets (59-27)

NBA Basketball: Tuesday, April 28, 2015 at 8:00 pm (Toyota Center)

The Line: Houston Rockets -7 -- Over/Under: 222 See the Latest Odds


The Houston Rockets look to finish off the Dallas Mavericks tonight in Game 5 at the Toyota Center.

After losing the first three games of the series, the Dallas Mavericks finally found a starting lineup that clicked and they got it going in a 121-109 win in Game 4. Monta Ellis led the team with 31 points on 13 of 21 shooting while Al-Farouq Aminu enjoyed starters minutes and finished with 16 points and 12 rebounds, but the real surprise for the Mavs was JJ Barea who was inserted into the starting lineup and had himself 17 points and 13 assists. As a team, the Mavs shot 54.3 percent from the field and outrebounded by the Rockets by 52-38 to stave off elimination and shift the series back to Houston.

Houston Rockets vs. Dallas Mavericks - 4/28/15 NBA Pick, Odds, and Prediction


As for the Rockets, James Harden led the scoring with 24 points, Josh Smith added 23 points while Corey Brewer had 22 points but it still wasn't enough as the Rockets couldn't recover from a cold shooting spell spanning from the second to the third quarter where they missed 17 consecutive shots. The final score has the Rockets losing by 12 points in the end, but they were actually down by as many as 24 points late in the third quarter, so the Rockets will definitely be feeling a little worried heading back home.

In ATS trends, the Mavs are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 road games and 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games following a win, while the Rockets are 7-1 ATS in their last eight Conference Quarterfinals games and 20-7 ATS in their last 27 home games.

Head to head, the Mavs are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings overall and 0-4 ATS in the last four meetings in Houston.

The Rockets won by double digits in both of their home games in this series and I'm sure they'll win again, but the Mavs will once again be playing to keep their season alive so I think they'll be good enough to keep it to single digits with their new starting lineup.

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