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Toronto Raptors vs. Miami Heat - 5/11/16 NBA Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Miami Heat (54-39) at Toronto Raptors (62-31)

NBA Basketball: Wednesday, May 11, 2016 at 8:00 pm (Air Canada Centre)

The Line: Toronto Raptors -4 -- Over/Under: 188.5 See the Latest Odds


The Miami Heat and the Toronto Raptors do battle in a pivotal Game 5 tonight at the Air Canada Center.

The Heat were able to level the series at 2-2 with a hard-fought 94-87 overtime win over the Raptors on Monday. Dwyane Wade led the charge with a game-high 30 points on 13 of 24 shooting while Joe Johnson and Goran Dragic added 15 points each as the Heat battled hard to come back from a late nine-point deficit to force overtime where they would dominate by 11-4. Hassan Whiteside was absent for the game so coach Spoelstra inserted Amar'e Stoudemire into the starting lineup but he played just 12 minutes as the Heat relied heavily on smaller lineups to spread the floor for Wade to attack the basket.

Toronto Raptors vs. Miami Heat - 5/11/16 NBA Pick, Odds, and Prediction


Meanwhile, the Raptors were playing without their leading big man in Jonas Valanciunas who has been key to their success in this series. Bismack Biyombo stepped into the starting role and had a double-double of 13 points with 13 rebounds, DeMarre Carroll also added 13 points while Terrence Ross and Cory Joseph chipped in with 14 points each, but the Raptors once again needed so much more from their All-Star backcourt duo of Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan who disappointed mightily with combined figures of just 19 points on six of 28 shooting. 

In ATS trends, the Heat are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall and 27-11-1 ATS in their last 39 Conference Semifinals games, while the Raptors are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games overall and 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.

Head to head, the Heat are 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings in Toronto.

I'm really looking for reasons to back the Raptors in this crucial Game 5, but the loss of Valanciunas really hurts the Raptors especially when their backcourt duo of Lowry and DeRozan struggles to score. All the stats and trends are in favor of the Heat as well, so that's where I'm leaning in this one. 

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