Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs - 5/22/17 NBA Playoffs Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Golden State Warriors at San Antonio Spurs - 5/22/17 NBA Playoffs Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by USA TODAY Sports

Golden State Warriors (78-15) at San Antonio Spurs (69-28)

NBA Basketball: Monday, May 22, 2017 at 9:00 pm (AT&T Center)

The Line: San Antonio Spurs +12 -- Over/Under: 216 Click to Get Latest Betting Odds

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The Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs meet Monday in game four of the NBA Western Conference Finals at the AT&T Center.

The Golden State Warriors will advance to their third straight NBA Finals with a victory here. The Golden State Warriors are averaging 117.4 points on 49.7 percent shooting and allowing 100.8 points on 41.6 percent shooting. Stephen Curry is averaging 27.9 points and 5.5 assists while Kevin Durant is averaging 24.8 points and 7.3 rebounds. Klay Thompson is the third double-digit scorer and Draymond Green is grabbing 8.7 rebounds. The Golden State Warriors are shooting 39.2 percent from beyond the arc and 81.7 percent from the free throw line. The Golden State Warriors are allowing 32.1 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 45.1 rebounds per game. The Golden State Warriors have won 10 straight road games.

The San Antonio Spurs need a win here in order to force a game five on Wednesday. The San Antonio Spurs are averaging 106.5 points on 46.5 percent shooting and allowing 104.5 points on 45.6 percent shooting. Kawhi Leonard is averaging 27.7 points and 4.6 assists while LaMarcus Aldridge is averaging 17.1 points and 7.5 rebounds. Jonathon Simmons is the third double-digit scorer and Patty Mills is dishing 2.7 assists. The San Antonio Spurs are shooting 35.2 percent from beyond the arc and 77.2 percent from the free throw line. The San Antonio Spurs are allowing 38.3 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 44.6 rebounds per game. The San Antonio Spurs have won 20 of their last 26 home games.

Wonder who the Top Experts Picked? Click Here To Find Out

The Warriors are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 road games, 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games playing on 1 days rest and 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games overall. The Spurs are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 Monday games, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Pacific and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings, the under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in San Antonio and the over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

I can not lay these type of numbers with the Spurs at home not knowing if Kawhi Leonard is going to play or not. I'm going to assume he's not going to play considering he wasn't good enough to play in game three despite a ton of games off. Regardless, I'm taking the over as a way to avoid the spread. The Warriors have scored a combined 256 points in the last two games, simply torching San Antonio with Kawhi out of the game. But the Spurs shot the ball fairly decent in game three, scoring 108 points despite making just five threes. This total seems low. I don't like the spread, so give me the over. 

See Who The Experts Picked To Win This One

Randy’s Pick Over 216

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Sports Chat Place site consensus.

Mitch's Take...

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