Houston Rockets at Golden State Warriors - Game 4 - 5/22/18 NBA Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Houston Rockets (74-21) at Golden State Warriors (68-27)
NBA Basketball: Tuesday, May 22, 2018 at 9:00 pm (Oracle Arena)
The Line: Golden State Warriors -8.5 -- Over/Under: 224 See the Latest Odds
The Golden State Warriors and the Houston Rockets collide in a pivotal Game 4 of the Western Conference Finals at the Oracle Arena on Tuesday.
The Houston Rockets will be heading back to the drawing board after getting routed by the Warriors in a 126-85 loss in Game 3 last night. James Harden led the team with just 20 points and nine assists, Chris Paul and Clint Capela each scored 13 points while Eric Gordon chipped in with 11 points off the bench but no other players finished in double figures. As a team, the Rockets shot just 39 percent from the field and 11 of 34 from the three-point line as they went away from the winning formula we saw in Game 2. The Rockets committed 20 turnovers which led to 28 points for the Warriors and they reverted back to their isolation offense which didn’t work at all. PJ Tucker and Trevor Ariza scored six points each after combining for 41 points in Game 2 while Gordon shot just four of 13 after pouring in 27 points.
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Meanwhile, the Golden State Warriors are back on top of the world after pulling off one of their best playoff performances in frachise history. Stephen Curry struggled with his shot in Game 2 but shimmied off those struggles with five three-pointers on his way to a game-high 35 points last night. Kevin Durant added 25 points with six assists, Klay Thompson scored 13 points while Draymond Green racked up 10 points with 17 rebounds and six assists. As a team, the Warriors shot a healthy 52 percent from the field and 13 of 32 from the three-point line, but this win was really about the third quarter where Curry scored 18 of his 35 points to fuel the Warriors’ second half run. On the defensive end, the Warriors kept everyone in check, especially against Paul and Harden who were held to a combined three of 14 shooting in the first half before they blew the game out with a 10-run to start the third quarter.
Looking at the betting trends, the Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games playing on one days rest, 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a loss of more than 10 points and 13-6 ATS in their last 19 road games against a team with a winning home record. Meanwhile, the Warriors are 5-1 ATS in their last six Conference Finals games, 6-20-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a win of more than 10 points and 22-7 ATS in their last 29 home games against a team with a road record above .600.
Head to head, the under is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings, the Rockets are 6-13 ATS in the last 19 meetings overall and 2-5 ATS in the last seven meetings in Golden State.
In typical fashion, the Warriors bounced back from the loss in Game 2 with a historically dominant win in Game 3 to take a 2-1 series lead. Curry looks to be over his minor shooting slump as he almost single-handedly took the heart out of the Rockets with that third quarter explosion. It’s now up to the Rockets to respond as their season is all but over if they fall behind 3-1 in this series. Harden and Paul will obviously need to step up their scoring production but the Rockets aren’t going to even be competitive unless they speed up their offense and share the ball like they did in Game 2. The only way is up for the Rockets after what we saw last night, but the Warriors have won 16 straight playoff home games and I think that trend continues as the Warriors are a class above when Curry gets hot. I’d love to see this game go down to the wire, but I just get the feeling we could see another blowout as the Warriors stay hot in this one.