Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat - 8/31/20 NBA Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat - 8/31/20 NBA Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Miami Heat (48-29) at Milwaukee Bucks (60-18)

NBA Basketball: Monday, August 31, 2020 at 6:30 pm (HP Field House)

The Line: Milwaukee Bucks -5.5 -- Over/Under: 223 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks meet Monday in game one of NBA playoff action at the HP Field House.

The Miami Heat are coming off a sweep over the Indiana Pacers. The Miami Heat are averaging 111.3 points on 46.4 percent shooting and allowing 100.8 points on 45.5 percent shooting. Goran Dragic is averaging 22.8 points and five assists while Jimmy Butler is averaging 19.8 points and 5.3 rebounds. Tyler Herro is the third double-digit scorer and Bam Adebayo is dishing 5.3 assists. The Miami Heat are shooting 39.1 percent from beyond the arc and 78.2 percent from the free throw line. The Miami Heat are allowing 37.5 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 45.5 rebounds per game.

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The Milwaukee Bucks are coming off a five-game series win over the Orlando Magic. The Milwaukee Bucks are averaging 116.2 points on 48.2 percent shooting and allowing 107 points on 42 percent shooting. Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 30.6 points and 16 rebounds while Khris Middleton is averaging 15 points and 5.2 assists. Brook Lopez is the third double-digit scorer and Eric Bledsoe is dishing 6.6 assists. The Milwaukee Bucks are shooting 38.3 percent from beyond the arc and 71.6 percent from the free throw line. The Milwaukee Bucks are allowing 37.7 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 50.4 rebounds per game.

The Heat are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 Monday games and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. The Bucks are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 Monday games and 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games overall. The under is 4-1 in Heat last 5 overall. The over is 7-3 in Bucks last 10 games as a favorite. The under is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.

The Miami Heat were 2-1 SU against the Bucks this season, and that one loss came in the bubble without Butler and Dragic, a game where they had a monster lead for majority of the game. The Heat are probably the only team in the league that has several players they can throw at Antetokounmpo, including Adebayo, who many consider the best Giannis defender in the league. The Bucks also allow so many wide open looks from deep, and the Miami Heat had the second best three point percentage in the league this season. This is just a bad matchup for the Bucks, and they certainly didn't convince me they've flipped the switch struggling in games against the Magic. I have the Heat winning this series, so I'm going to take the points and ML whenever I can.

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Randy’s Pick Miami Heat +5.5

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Sports Chat Place site consensus.