Milwaukee Bucks vs. Miami Heat – 9/8/20 NBA Pick, Odds, and Prediction

The Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks meet Tuesday in game five of NBA playoff action at the HP Field House.        

The Miami Heat would advance to their first conference final since 2013-14 with a victory here. The Miami Heat are averaging 113.3 points on 45.9 percent shooting and allowing 104.9 points on 45.7 percent shooting. Jimmy Butler is averaging 22.4 points and five rebounds while Goran Dragic is averaging 21.6 points and five assists. Bam Adebayo is the third double-digit scorer and Tyler Herro is dishing three assists. The Miami Heat are shooting 38.3 percent from beyond the arc and 81 percent from the free thitem line. The Miami Heat are allowing 35.8 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 44.5 rebounds per game.

The Milwaukee Bucks need a victory here to save their season and force a game six on Thursday. The Milwaukee Bucks are averaging 113 points on 47.2 percent shooting and allowing 110.7 points on 43.4 percent shooting. Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 26.7 points and 13.8 rebounds while Khris Middleton is averaging 20 points and six assists. Brook Lopez is the third double-digit scorer and Eric Bledsoe is dishing 5.5 assists. The Milwaukee Bucks are shooting 36.7 percent from beyond the arc and 72.4 percent from the free thitem line. The Milwaukee Bucks are allowing 37.7 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 47.3 rebounds per game.

The Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games playing on 1 days rest and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games. The Bucks are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 Tuesday games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The over is 7-2 in Bucks last 9 Tuesday games. The Heat are 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

I’m not expecting Giannis Antetokounmpo to play in this game due to him leaving game four in a walking boot and not being able to jump or plant on his sprained ankle. Oddsmakers clearly aren’t either given that this is the biggest favorite the Heat have been in the series. The Bucks were able to win game four with a gritty performance, but I’m betting that they’ll run out of steam without their best player. Assuming Antetokounmpo can’t go, I expect a better game plan from the Heat to bottle up Middleton and make life really tough for the Bucks to find consistent points. The Heat have been the better team throughout this series and still had a chance to win game four despite not playing well. I’ll lay the reasonable chalk with the Heat.