Phoenix Suns (65-25) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (58-33)
July 11, 2021 8:00 pm EDT
The Line: Milwaukee Bucks -4; Over/Under: +222
(Click here for latest betting odds)
The Phoenix Suns travel to the Fiserv Forum to battle the Milwaukee Bucks in a pivotal Game 3 of the NBA Finals on Sunday night.
The Phoenix Suns will be looking to take a commanding 3-0 series lead after taking care of business in a hard-fought 118-108 win in Game 2 on Thursday. Devin Booker led the team with 31 points and six assists on 12 of 25 shooting, Mikal Bridges provided a real spark with 27 points on eight of 15 shooting while Chris Paul chipped in with 23 poiints and eight assists on 10 of 20 shooting. As a team, the Suns shot 48 percent from the field and a sizzling 20 of 40 from the 3-point line, but it was actually their defense that was the difference in this one as they were always in control after outscoring the Bucks by 30-16 in the second quarter. DeAndre Ayton had a quiet game offensively as he scored just 10 points on four of 10 shooting, but he did everything else as he racked up 11 rebounds with four assists, three steals and two blocks.
Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Bucks will need to regroup and go back to the drawing board after allowing the Suns to run riot for the second straight game. Giannis Antetokounmpo bounced back to lead the team with 42 points with 12 rebounds and four assists on 15 of 22 shooting but he just didn’t have much help as Jrue Holiday scored just 17 points on seven of 21 shooting while Khris Middleton scored just 11 points on five of 16 shooting. As a team, the Bucks shot 45 percent from the field and nine of 31 from the 3-point line as they got off to a quick start before going ice-cold in the second quarter where they managed just 16 points. Pat Connaughton provided some quality minutes off the bench as he scored 14 points with seven rebounds, but the Bucks simply need more from Middleton and Holiday, especially when they’re not hitting a high clip behind the 3-point line.
Looking at the betting trends, the Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as an underdog, 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following a win and 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games. The Bucks are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
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Head to head, the over is 6-0 in the last six meetings overall, the Suns are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Milwaukee and the Suns are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings overall.
The Suns have just about ticked all the boxes which is why they’re up 2-0 in the series, but with the series going back to the Fiserv Forum, they know that they’re going to face a hostile crowd and a desperate Bucks team. It was great to see Antetokounmpo bounce back after scoring just 20 points in Game 1, but the rest of the Bucks need to wake up in a hurry or they will find themselves one loss away from getting swept. It’s hard to make an argument against the Suns who have now covered in 12 of their last 15 games, but nobody comes back from a 3-0 series deficit, so this is it for the Bucks. I expect to see a desperate Bucks team in this one and I like their chances if they can get off to a quick start at home.