NBA Picks

Philadelphia 76ers vs Miami Heat 5/8/22 NBA Picks, Predictions, Odds

Miami Heat (59-31) vs. Philadelphia 76ers (56-35)
May 8, 2022 8:00 pm EDT
The Line: Philadelphia 76ers -1.5; Over/Under: -206.5
(Click here for latest betting odds)

The Miami Heat and the Philadelphia 76ers collide in Game 4 at the Wells Fargo Center on Sunday night.

The Miami Heat must have been so full of confidence after taking the first two games of the series, but they will be looking to bounce back in this one after getting thrashed by the 76ers in a 99-79 loss in Game 3 on Friday. Jimmy Butler led the team with 33 points on 12 of 22 shooting but he had next to no support as Tyler Herro added 14 points off the bench, but no other player finished in double figures in scoring. As a team, the Heat shot just 35 percent from the field and seven of 30 from the 3-point line as they struggled to find their offense and managed just 34 points in the first half, but they still managed to hang in the contest until the fourth quarter where they managed just 14 points to finish with their lowest score of the season. Max Strus scored just nine points on three of 11 shooting, Bam Adebayo scored just nine points on two of nine shooting while Kyle Lowry finished scoreless on zero of four shooting.

Meanwhile, the Philadelphia 76ers needed to make their mark in the series and they finally did with a dominant win in Game 3. Tyrese Maxey continued his hot form with 21 points and six assists, Danny Green bounced back from his poor performance in Game 2 with seven 3-pointers to finish with 21 points, Joel Embiid returned from injury to add 18 points with 11 rebounds while James Harden tallied 17 points with eight rebounds and six assists. As a team, the 76ers shot 47 percent from the field and 16 of 33 from the 3-point line, but this win was all about their defense as they controlled the tempo of the game right from the start and never looked in danger as they kept the Heat off balance.

Looking at the betting trends, the Heat are 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 road games, 4-1 ATS in their last five games as a road underdog and 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games overall. The 76ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a win of more than 10 points.

Head to head, the under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings overall and the Heat are 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 meetings overall. 

Embiid was solid in his return and Maxey is still red-hot, but the real x-factor for me was actually Green who really gave the 76ers the spark from the perimeter they’ve been missing so far. The Heat just didn’t come ready to play in Game 3 and they just never got going except for Butler who poured in 33 points but he’s going to need a lot more help if they want to stay ahead in this series. It’s hard to imagine the Heat shooting as poorly as they did on Friday, but the 76ers stole the momentum with a big win without needing a big game from Embiid, so I’m backing them to square up the series in what should be a closer contest.

Peter Tran's Free Pick:
Philadelphia -1.5

Peter Tran

Professional NBA Handicapper at
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