Dallas Mavericks (59-35) vs. Phoenix Suns (71-23)
May 15, 2022 8:00 pm EDT
The Line: Phoenix Suns -6; Over/Under: +210
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The Dallas Mavericks and the Phoenix Suns do battle in a dramatic Game 7 at the Footprint Center on Sunday night.
The Dallas Mavericks will be overflowing with confidence after making light work of the Suns in a 113-86 win in Game 6 on Thursday to force a series decider. Luka Doncic led the team with 33 points, 11 rebounds, eight assists and four steals, Reggie Bullock added 19 points, Jalen Brunson scored 18 points while Spencer Dinwiddie drained five 3-pointers to chip in with 15 points off the bench. As a team, the Mavericks shot 45 percent from the field and 16 of 39 from the 3-point line as they set the tone with their defense and held the Suns to just 20 points in the second quarter to take the lead into halftime and things only got better in the second half where they outscored the Suns by 53-41 to make it a complete blowout in the end.
Meanwhile, the Phoenix Suns are now just one loss from elimination after getting completely outplayed by the Mavericks on Thursday night. DeAndre Ayton led the team with 21 points and 11 rebounds on 10 of 16 shooting, Devin Booker added 19 points with eight rebounds and three assists while Chris Paul chipped in with just 13 points and four assists. As a team, the Suns shot just 39 percent from the field and six of 18 from the 3-point line as they struggled against the Mavericks’ pressure defense and trailed by 15 points going into halftime and things only got worse in the second half where they managed just 41 points. Ayton was the only player on his game as Booker shot just six of 17 from the field, Paul finished with more turnovers than assists and no bench player scored more than six points.
Looking at the betting trends, the Mavericks are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games against a team above .600, 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games against a team with a winning record and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The Suns are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.
Head to head, the under is 4-0 in the last four meetings overall, the Mavericks are 3-10 ATS in the last 13 meetings in Phoenix and the Mavericks are 7-18 ATS in the last 25 meetings overall.
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The Suns will be saying that they’re still confident about their chances of advancing, but you must be worried if you’re a Suns fan as they’ve now lost three of the last four games in the series. The Mavericks are playing with house money in these playoffs and they must be brimming with confidence after forcing a Game 7 on Thursday, so I don’t expect them to be tight at all in this one, not compared to the Suns who might be feeling the external pressure now. The Suns have won all their three home games in this series by comfortable margins and I’m tempted to take them at the line in this spot, but I think Doncic can spoil their plans here and at least make them sweat till the final buzzer.