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Bulls vs Heat Analysis, Odds 10/19/2022 NBA Prop Bets

NBA Prop Bets: Miami Heat vs Chicago Bulls - October 19, 2022
October 19, 2022 7:39 pm EDT

The Chicago Bulls (0-0) face the Miami Heat (0-0) at FTX Arena in Miami. Here are the stats for each team leading up to this season opening matchup. Unsurprisingly, the Heat are favored to win at -245, currently marked as 6.0-point favorites, while the Bulls are at +205. The total points line is set at 216.5, with OVER at -110 and UNDER at -110, meaning the implied expected score for the game is 111-105 Miami.

  • The Bulls (-110) had a 44-42-1 ATS record last season, while the Heat (-110) held a record of 56-43-1.
  • The Bulls had a 40-46-1 O/U record last season (meaning 40 games went over the total points line, 46 went under and one resulted in a push). The Heat had a 55-45-0 O/U record last season.

Scoring Insights

  • The Bulls scored 111.6 points per game last season (13th in the league). Comparatively, the Heat averaged 110.0 (17th).
  • Defensively, the Bulls allowed 112.0 points per game last season (T16th in the league), while the Heat gave up an average of 105.6 points (4th).

Game Style: What the stats can tell us

Last year’s stats are an important indicator for predicting future performance because they show strengths and weaknesses in strategy and game play. They also show how well teams did against other teams in their division and conference, which gives us an idea of how they might do today. So let’s take a look at each team’s KPIs from the 21/22 season.

Field Goal Split

  • Looking at field goal splits, 33.2% of the Bulls’ field goal attempts came from three point range (30th in the league), leaving 66.8% from two. Meanwhile, the Heat’s opponents recorded 45.6% of their attempts from three (27th) and 54.4% from two.
  • Comparatively, Miami took 42.2% of shots from three (14th), leaving 57.8% from two, while Chicago’s opponents attempted 36.5% from three (2nd) and 63.5% from two.

Beyond the Arc

  • In terms of made three-pointers, the Bulls shot 36.9% from deep last season (4th in the NBA), compared to the Heat who made 37.9% of their attempts (1st).
  • On the opposite end, Chicago held opponents to 36.6% of their three-point attempts (27th), while Miami’s opponents did it tougher, hitting 33.9% of their shots (2nd).

Ball Protection

  • The Bulls committed 12.1 turnovers per game last season, ranking 5th in the league, while the Heat forced 14.1 turnovers (5th).
  • Flipping that script, Chicago forced 12.4 turnovers (25th), while Miami committed a potentially problematic 13.8 per contest (25th).

Crashing the Boards

  • Chicago recorded just 42.3 rebounds per game last season (28th in the league), including 8.7 offensive boards (29th). Conversely, Miami’s opponents averaged a paltry 41.7 rebounds (2nd), 9.5 of which came on the offensive end (5th).
  • Meanwhile, the Heat averaged 43.7 rebounds (22nd) and 9.8 offensive rebounds (18th), while the Bulls allowed 43.2 and 9.3, ranking 9th and 2nd.

First Quarter Winner

Here are their first quarter records in 2021/22.

  • Total Home Road Favorite Underdog
  • Chicago 36-44-7 18-23-2 18-21-5 24-20-4 12-24-3
  • Miami 54-42-4 29-19-3 25-23-1 38-27-4 16-15-0

First Half Winner

Here are their first half records in 2021/22.

  • Total Home Road Favorite Underdog
  • Chicago 41-46-0 21-22-0 20-24-0 32-16-0 9-30-0
  • Miami 62-36-2 34-16-1 28-20-1 45-22-2 17-14-0

HT/FT

  • The Bulls completed the HT/FT double in 41.4% of games last season, while the Heat completed the HT/FT double in 50.0% of games.

To Go To Overtime

  • The Bulls played in two games that went to overtime last season, while the Heat appeared in four.

Both Teams 110+

  • Both teams scored 110+ points in 30 of Chicago’s 87 games last season. Meanwhile, 17 of Miami’s 100 games saw both squads reach that number.

Last Time They Met

Miami recorded a 127-109 victory over Chicago at United Center when these teams last met on April 2, 2022. Despite being on the losing side, Zach LaVine was prominent on that day, recording 33 points and 5 rebounds. The Heat have now won four straight against the Bulls.


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