Heat vs Mavericks Pick – NBA Predictions & Odds 4/1/23

The Dallas Mavericks and Miami Heat meet Saturday in NBA action at the Miami-Dade Arena. Let’s preview this game and give out a pick and prediction.

The Dallas Mavericks are averaging 113.8 points on 47.4 percent shooting and allowing 113.3 points on 48.5 percent shooting. Luka Doncic is averaging 32.8 points and 8.1 assists, while Kyrie Irving is averaging 26.1 points and 5.2 rebounds. Christian Wood is the third double-digit scorer and Tim Hardaway Jr. is grabbing 3.5 rebounds. The Dallas Mavericks are shooting 37.2 percent from beyond the arc and 75.7 percent from the free throw line. The Dallas Mavericks are allowing 35.2 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 38.6 rebounds per game.

The Miami Heat are averaging 108.7 points on 45.6 percent shooting and allowing 109.8 points on 48.1 percent shooting. Jimmy Butler is averaging 22.6 points and 5.9 rebounds, while Bam Adebayo is averaging 20.7 points and 9.3 rebounds. Tyler Herro is the third double-digit scorer and Kyle Lowry is grabbing 4.2 rebounds. The Miami Heat are shooting 34.1 percent from beyond the arc and 83.2 percent from the free throw line. The Miami Heat are allowing 37 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 40.6 rebounds per game.

The Mavericks are 2-10-2 ATS in their last 14 games playing on 2 days rest and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The Heat are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games and 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games overall. The under is 4-0 in Mavericks last 4 overall. The over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 home games. The Mavericks are 16-7-2 ATS in the last 25 meetings in Miami and 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

I’m not thrilled to back either of these underachieving teams that pick and choose when to show up. However, somebody needs to win, and the Heat are at home where they play their best ball. The Mavs lose on the road by an average of 2.4 points. Home court is the only edge I see here, and I wouldn’t touch this game personally.