Mavericks vs Thunder Prediction 10/28/26 NBA Picks Today

The Oklahoma City Thunder have stormed out of the gates with four wins on the trot, and they will be looking to improve to 5-0 after taking down the Suns in a 125-114 home win on Monday. Ajay Mitchell led the team with 30 points and five assists on 10 of 16 shooting; Shai Gilgeous-Alexander added 26 points on 11 of 18 shooting, while Isaiah Hartenstein tallied 15 points with 13 rebounds on six of seven shooting.

As a team, the Thunder shot a healthy 51 percent from the field and 12 of 32 from the 3-point line, but this win was mostly about their defense. The Thunder were never in danger once they pulled away in the second quarter as they were able to nullify the Suns’ Devin Booker, who scored just three points on one of seven shooting in 34 minutes of action.

Meanwhile, the Dallas Mavericks have split their first four games of the season, and they will be eager to build some momentum after outlasting the Heat in a 113-109 road win on Monday. Cooper Flagg had a monster game with 29 points, 11 assists, five steals, and three blocks; PJ Washington added 20 points with nine rebounds, while Kyrie Irving chipped in with 18 points, six rebounds, and six assists.

As a team, the Mavericks shot 46 percent from the field and 14 of 46 from the 3-point line as they fought their way back into the contest after trailing by 11 points, before they rallied in the fourth quarter to cap off the comeback and secure their second road win of the season.

Why the Dallas Mavericks will win

• The home team has won each of the Thunder’s last three games.
• The Thunder have lost three of their last four games against Southwest Division opponents following a win.
• The Mavericks have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games as home underdogs against the Thunder.
• The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games against Southwest Division opponents following a win.

Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win

• The Thunder have won 19 of their last 20 games following a home win.
• The Mavericks have lost each of their last seven games following a win.
• The Mavericks have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games following a win.
• The favorites have covered the spread in five of the Mavericks’ last six games at American Airlines Center.

Total Points Facts

• Five of the Mavericks’ last six home games against the Thunder have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Five of the Thunder’s last six games as road favorites have gone OVER the total points line.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Mavericks rank 1st in the league for opponent free throw percentage this season (67.0%).
• The Mavericks rank 30th in the league for free throws made per game this season (13.5).
• The Thunder rank 1st in the league for opponent points per game this season (100.8).
• The Thunder rank 1st in the league for opponent field goal percentage this season (41.2%).

The Thunder have ruled out Alex Caruso, Jalen Williams, Cason Wallace, and Chet Holmgren, and they are keeping an eye on Ajay Mitchell, who is questionable, while the Mavericks are keeping an eye on Caleb Martin, Kyrie Irving, and Naji Marshall, who are all questionable.

This is certainly a game where you want to check the lineups before tipoff, but no team can still win games with such a long injury list like the Thunder, and I think we’re going to see another example of that here. Give me the Thunder to keep Flagg and the Mavs quiet enough with their elite defense to allow SGA to carry them to victory on offense.