The Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets meet Thursday in Game 1 of the NBA Finals at the Ball Arena. Let’s preview this game and give out a pick and prediction.
Miami Heat Betting Preview
The Miami Heat are averaging 111.7 points on 47.2 percent shooting and allowing 107.4 points on 45.7 percent shooting. Jimmy Butler is averaging 28.5 points and 7 rebounds, while Bam Adebayo is averaging 16.8 points and 9.2 rebounds. Caleb Martin is the third double-digit scorer and Gabe Vincent is grabbing 1.7 rebounds. The Miami Heat are shooting 39 percent from beyond the arc and 80.4 percent from the free throw line. The Miami Heat are allowing 32.5 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 41 rebounds per game.
Denver Nuggets Betting Preview
The Denver Nuggets are averaging 116.4 points on 49 percent shooting and allowing 108.1 points on 47.2 percent shooting. Nikola Jokic is averaging 29.9 points and 13.3 rebounds, while Jamal Murray is averaging 27.7 points and 5.5 rebounds. Michael Porter Jr. is the third double-digit scorer and Aaron Gordon is grabbing 5.5 rebounds. The Denver Nuggets are shooting 38.6 percent from beyond the arc and 81.5 percent from the free throw line. The Denver Nuggets are allowing 34.2 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 44.2 rebounds per game.
Trends
The Heat are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games and 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games overall. The Nuggets are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games playing on 3 or more days rest and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 home games. The under is 4-0 in Heat last 4 overall. The under is 9-4 in Nuggets last 13 home games. The Heat are 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings in Denver and 9-25 ATS in the last 34 meetings.
Randy’s Pick
The Denver Nuggets are going to be obvious favorites as they’re well rested and at home, where they win by an average of 10.1 points and are 31-18 ATS. However, as I’ve said time and time again, the Heat are moneymakers in this spot. The Heat are 12-4 ATS and 10-6 SU in their last 16 games as a playoff underdog. Also, a trend that goes back to the bubble, the Heat are 7-2 SU as a playoff underdog of 8 or more points. I’ll continue to grab the points with the Heat as long as these trends hold up. Give me the free buckets.
