Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Prediction 05-23-2023 NBA Picks

Peter TranMay 23, 2023
Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Prediction 05-23-2023 NBA Picks player photo
Credit: USA Today Sports

The Miami Heat will be looking to complete the series sweep over the Boston Celtics in Game 4 at the Kaseya Center on Tuesday night.

The Boston Celtics came into this series with such high expectations, but it’s been a struggle from Game 1 and they are now battling to avoid the sweep after getting embarrassed by 128-102 in Game 3 on Sunday. Jayson Tatum had a rough game as he scored just 14 points and 10 rebounds on six of 18 shooting while Jaylen Brown, Peyton Pritchard and Grant Williams all scored 12 points. As a team, the Celtics shot just 39 percent from the field and 11 of 42 from the 3-point line as they struggled to match the Heat right from the start and trailed in this one by as many as 33 points after scoring just 17 points in the third quarter. As bad as the Celtics were on the offensive end, they were even worse on defense as they just had no answer for the Heat’s Gabe Vincent and Duncan Robinson who combined for 51 points.

Meanwhile, the Miami Heat are showing us why they were so confident heading into this series as they are now just one win away from advancing to the NBA Finals. Gabe Vincent led the way with 29 points on 11 of 14 shooting, Duncan Robinson drained five 3-pointers to finish with 22 points off the bench while Caleb Martin scored 18 points. As a team, the Heat shot a healthy 56 percent from the field and 19 of 35 from the 3-point line as they came out playing like the more desperate team and just ran over the Celtics despite Butler scoring just 16 points for the game. It really was a team effort as the role players dominated despite allowing the Celtics to grab 21 offensive rebounds.

Looking at the betting trends, the Celtics are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a loss, 4-1 ATS in their last five road games and 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall. The Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last eight home games, 4-1 ATS in their last five Conference Finals games and 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games overall.

Head to head, the over is 5-1 in the last six meetings overall, the Celtics are 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings overall and the Celtics are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Miami.

The Celtics needed to come out swinging and make a statement after falling behind by 2-0 in the series, but that didn’t happen at all as the Heat actually played like the more desperate team. Every team loses sometimes, but the Celtics flat out looked like they gave up on Sunday which doesn’t bode well for Game 4. The Heat have already shown in this series that they are the better closing team and I think that trend continues here as the Heat complete the sweep with another win and cover.

Peter Tran's Free Pick:Miami -1.5
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