The Denver Nuggets and the Miami Heat duke it out in a pivotal Game 4 on the NBA Finals at the Kaseya Center on Friday night.

The Denver Nuggets needed to respond after getting ambushed in Game 2 and they did just that as they dominated Game 3 to beat the Heat by 109-94 on Wednesday to reclaim the series lead. Jamal Murray led the team with a triple-double of 34 points with 10 rebounds and 10 assists, Nikola Jokic racked up a triple-double of 32 points with 21 rebounds and 10 assists while Aaron Gordon tallied 11 points with 10 rebounds and five assists. As a team, the Nuggets shot 51 percent from the field and just five of 18 from the 3-point line, but this win was more about their defense as they kept the Heat in check early on to take lead into halftime, before they restricted the Heat to just 20 points in the third quarter to push the margin out to 21 points at one stage. The Nuggets really dominated the paint in this one as they outrebounded the Heat by 58-33 and they finished with 60 points in the paint. The Nuggets got nothing from their bench players except for Christian Braun who provided the spark with 15 points on seven of eight shooting in just 19 minutes off the bench. 

Meanwhile, the Miami Heat would’ve been brimming with confidence after stealing Game 2, but they are now hoping to bounce back again after getting blown out at home on Wednesday. Jimmy Butler led the team with 28 points on 11 of 24 shooting, Bam Adebayo added 22 points with 17 rebounds while Caleb Martin chipped in with 10 points, but no other player finished in double figures in scoring. As a team, the Heat shot just 37 percent from the field and 11 of 35 from the 3-point line as they struggled to find their offense from the start which cost them as they never looked threatening after falling behind by in the third quarter. Gabe Vincent had a rough game as he scored just seven points on two of 10 shooting, while Max Strus finished with just three points on one of seven shooting. 

Looking at the betting trends, the Nuggets are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games, 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a win of more than 10 points and 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall. The Heat are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games against a team with a winning record, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games and 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games overall. 

Head to head, the over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings overall, the Nuggets are 27-10 ATS in the last 37 meetings overall and the Nuggets are 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings in Miami. 

The Nuggets were good enough to reclaim the series lead thanks to big triple-doubles from Jokic and Murray, but they also needed a spark from the bench and they got that with Braun providing plenty of production. The Heat weren’t getting enough scoring from anyone other than Adebayo and Butler, so it’s up to the role players to step up and provide some support if they want to square up the series. There was talk that Tyler Herro could make his return, but the current news is that he is expected to be out. With that being said, I expect to see a better effort from the Heat in this one, but I don’t think it will be enough to beat the Nuggets who are just too tough to beat when Murray and Jokic are both clicking. This should be a closer contest, but I’m sticking with the Nuggets to get the job done here.