NBA Finals Prop Bets

The Denver Nuggets will face the Miami Heat in the NBA Finals. It is regarded as one of the most interesting and unexpected in recent memory. Denver will make its first appearance in franchise history after winning the Western Conference Finals by sweeping the LA Lakers. Miami, on the other hand, will play its second NBA Finals in four years and the seventh since 2006. They won the chip on three occasions, but now the Heat could become the first-ever No. 8 seed to win the title. However, the Nuggets are big favorites at most online sportsbooks and who wants to lay $400 to win only $100. So instead, let’s check out the most popular NBA Finals Prop Bets!

NBA Finals Prop Bet: Series Total Games – Under 5.5

The Denver Nuggets played their last game ten days ago. Will they be rusty or fresh? With this coaching staff, sharp money is on a sharp Nuggets squad.

The Miami Heat went from 3-0 to 3-3 against the Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals before dominating Game 7 at the Garden. Unlike the Nuggets, the Heat didn’t have ten days to recover, and that could be crucial in this series. Erik Spoelstra will be without Miami’s third leading-scorer Tyler Herro (20.1 ppg) for the opening three games. He could return for Game 4, but that may be too late for the Heat. The Heat will arrive for Denver for game 1 without enough time to acclimate to the city’s mile-high altitude. It’s called home-court advantage for a reason, and I’m taking the Nuggets to win the opening two games.

The most important game of the series will be Game 3 in Miami. If the Nuggets win that game, they will most certainly lift the Larry O’Brien trophy, as no team ever returned from a 3-0 deficit to win a playoff series. I am backing Denver to pull this game out even if the Heat leave it all on the floor and take Game 4. Denver will have match point in Game 5 at Ball Arena. For even better paying odds you can bet the prop of Denver winning the series 4 to 1!

My NBA Finals Prop Bet pick: Under 5.5 games in the series

 

NBA Finals Prop Bet: Series Handicap – The Nuggets -1.5

The Nuggets are 12-3 straight up in the playoffs and are on a six-game winning streak. Michael Malone’s side won each of its eight home games in the postseason, and I don’t doubt Denver will beat the Heat in every game at Ball Arena. Miami did defeat Milwaukee twice and Boston three times on the road, so they can’t be written off. Still, the recent H2H record is entirely on the Nuggets’ side.

Denver won both H2H encounters in the regular season and is 6-0 in the previous six meetings. Since 2019, the Heat have had only one victory over the Nuggets. It was in August 2020 in the Orlando bubble. The Nuggets also won each of the last six head-to-heads at home. It’s clear that this matchup doesn’t suit Miami, especially in Denver. Now, some will say that this doesn’t matter in the NBA Finals, but numbers don’t lie, and that’s why the Nuggets are unlikley to lose more than two games.

Speaking of numbers; the Nuggets have the advantage in pretty much every statistical category. Denver averages 116.4 ppg in the playoffs, opposite Miami’s 111.7 ppg. The Heat do have a slightly better defense, but that not on built to defend the Nikola Jokic offense. The Nuggets have six players who average double digits in the postseason. The Heat will play without Herro and Oladipo, two scorers who combined for 30.8 ppg in the regular season and saw little action in the postseason.

The Nuggets are also better in field goal percentage (49.0% vs. 47.2%), rebounds (44.2 vs. 41.0), assists (25.9 vs. 23.7), and turnovers (11.4 vs. 12.4). In fact, Denver commits the fewest number of turnovers per game of all playoff teams this year. Miami thrived in games where it forced Jaylen Brown and the Cs to turn it over. 

The numbers make the Nuggets covering a -1.5 games my favorite NBA Finals Prop Bet.

NBA Finals Prop Bet: Most Points in Series – Nikola Jokic

Nikola Jokic has undoubtedly been the best player in the NBA in the last three seasons (Joel Embiid fans look away now). Although Jokic didn’t get the MVP Award this year, you cuold make a case that he did deserve it. The Joker led the Nuggets to their first-ever NBA Finals, and he has a solid chance to win the Finals MVP Award. The odds are unattractive, so I am going with the Most Point in Series.

Jokic’s numbers improved in the playoffs compared to the regular season. In 15 games this postseason, Jokic averages a triple-double with 29.9 ppg, 13.3 rpg, and 10.3 apg. Jimmy Butler is averaging 28.5 ppg, while Jamal Murray has 27.7 ppg. These guys are going to be in the mix, but Jokic is red-hot at the moment. Bam Adebayo will be guarding him, but he is undersized vs a 7 footer’s baby hook. Anthony Davis tried to do so in the Western Conference Finals; unsuccessfully, as Jokic averaged 27.8 points per contest in a four-game series.

The Heat know that if they double-team Jokic, he will always find an open teammate and hurt them more, and although a solid defender, Bam has a tough task guarding the big man straight up. Miami’s zone worked in the latest win over Boston; however, that will not work against Jokic and the Nuggets. Expect Nikola to record multiple 30-point games in the series.

Jokic to score the most points in the series is my top NBA Finals Prop Bet.