Oklahoma City Thunder (68-14) vs. Indiana Pacers (50-32)
June 19, 2025 8:30 pm EDT
The Line: Indiana Pacers +6.5; Over/Under: 222.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Indiana Pacers will be hoping to force a series decider against the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 6 of the NBA Finals at the Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Thursday night. Here’s a Pacers vs Thunder Prediction. This article will include a Pacers vs Thunder Pick.
Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview
The Oklahoma City Thunder are now just one win away from winning the NBA Championship after rolling past the Pacers in a 120-109 home win in Game 5 on Monday to take a 3-2 series lead. Jalen Williams led the team with 40 points, six rebounds and four assists on 14 of 25 shooting, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander added 31 points with 10 rebounds and four blocks while Aaron Wiggins chipped in with 14 points and five rebounds off the bench.
As a team, the Thunder shot 42 percent from the field and 14 of 32 from the 3-point line as they took control of the contest from the start. They held the Pacers to just 22 points in the first quarter to lead by as many as 18 points in the second quarter. This was more than enough to hold off a misfiring Pacers squad. Chet Holmgren had a rough game as he shot just four of 15 from the field for his nine points. Meanwhile, Alex Caruso had a night to forget as he scored just two points on one of eight shooting off the bench.
Indiana Pacers Betting Preview
Meanwhile, the Indiana Pacers now have their backs against the wall for the first time in this series, as they are now on the brink of elimination after coming out flat in a poor showing in Game 5. Pascal Siakam led the team in scoring with 28 points, six rebounds, five assists and three steals, TJ McConnell added 18 points off the bench while Aaron Nesmith chipped in with 14 points and six rebounds.
As a team, the Pacers shot 45 percent from the field and 11 of 30 from the 3-point line as they struggled to get going from the start and were always fighting an uphill battle after falling into an early 18-point deficit. Bennedict Mathurin had a quiet game of just seven points on two of 11 shooting off the bench, but the biggest disappointment was Tyrese Haliburton, who finished with just four points on zero of six shooting in 34 minutes of action.
Why the Indiana Pacers will win
- The Pacers have won each of their last eight home games following a loss.
- The Thunder have lost each of their last four games as road favorites following a home win.
- The Pacers have covered the spread in each of their last seven playoff home games following a loss.
- The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six road games following a win.
Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win
- The Thunder have won 17 of their last 18 games as road favorites against Eastern Conference opponents.
- The Pacers have lost three of their last four games.
- The Thunder have covered the spread in 12 of their last 14 games against Eastern Conference opponents.
- The Pacers have failed to cover the spread in three of their last four NBA Finals games.
Indiana Pacers Player Facts
- Myles Turner ranks 1st in the Eastern Conference amongst qualified players for Blocks Per Game (2.0) this season.
- T.J. McConnell ranks 6th amongst qualified players for assists per 36 minutes (8.9) this season.
Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ranks 1st amongst qualified players for points per game (32.7) this season.
- Cason Wallace ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for steals per game (1.8) this season.
Pacers vs Thunder Prediction
Looking at the betting trends, the Thunder are 8-3 SU in its last 11 games and 1-8 in its last nine games on the road, while the Pacers are 15-5 SU in its last 20 home games and 12-6 SU in its last 18 games overall.
The momentum is again with the Thunder, who are just one win away from winning the chip, but it’s always tough to close out on the road, especially in front of what will definitely be a packed house. The Pacers are sweating on the availability of Haliburton who is dealing with a calf strain, but I expect him to suit up given what is at stake here. Perhaps Haliburton won’t be at his best, but I think this game is more about the role players like TJ McConnell and Bennedict Mathurin who I think will step up.
I don’t like the Pacers’ chances if they get off to another slow start, but with their season on the line, I think the Pacers start hot and do enough to force a Game 7 in this spot.
