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Atlanta Falcons vs. St. Louis Rams Free Pick 9/15/13

St. Louis Rams (1-0) at Atlanta Falcons (0-1)

NFL Football: Sunday, September 15, 2013 at 1:00 pm (Georgia Dome)

The Line: Atlanta Falcons -7.5 -- Over/Under: 47.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: Fox

The St. Louis Rams head to Atlanta on Sunday to face the Atlanta Falcons in the Georgia Dome.

The Atlanta Falcons played a solid game against the Saints on Sunday, but came up short in the end, falling to New Orleans 23-17. Atlanta jumped out to an early lead on the Saints, but that wouldn’t last. The Saints came back strong in the second quarter, and took a lead into the locker room at the break. The Falcons responded first in the third quarter, taking the lead back from the Saints, but Atlanta’s offense would stall out from there and in the end the Falcons fell to the Saints. Falcon QB Matt Ryan had a solid day for Atlanta, putting up 304 yards and two scores, giving Ryan a QBR of 72.2 for the day. Newly acquired running back Stephen Jackson was also solid for the Falcons, rushing for 77 yards on just 11 attempts. Jackson showed everyone that age hasn’t slowed him down too much, as Jackson had an impressive 50 yard run in the second half. The Falcon defensive unit had problems against the Saints as New Orleans moved the ball up and down the field on Atlanta, to the tune of 419 yards. It did take the Saints offense a bit to get going, but once Brees and head coach Sean Payton found their rhythm, the Saints started looking like their old selves.

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Atlanta Falcons vs. St. Louis Rams Free Pick 9/15/13

Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports

The St. Louis Rams defeated the Arizona Cardinals in St. Louis 27-24 in their opening week. The Rams were able to move the ball effectively on the Cardinals defense. Arizona, kind of quietly has one of the better defensive units in the league right now, so for Bradford and company to put up 27 against them was impressive. Bradford was solid against the Cards, throwing for 299 yards and two scores, however the Rams QB did throw a pick-six, which dropped his QBR to 50.4 on the day. The talk around Bradford has always been that he doesn’t have any weapons to work with, and now that excuse is gone as the Rams have brought in Tavon Austin, and tight end Jared Cook is looking outstanding early on. There was some question as to whether or not there would be a huge drop off for the Rams running game now that Jackson is with the Falcons, but Richardson looked solid in his place, rushing for 63 yards on 20 attempts. Defensively the Rams did have some issues, but the run defense was stout and containing Jackson on Sunday against the Falcons will be a key to this game.

In the past three seasons as an underdog of 3.5-9.5 points, the Rams are just 2-11 overall and have gone 4-8 against the spread. The Falcons as a favorite of that same spread, are 8-0 overall with an ATS record of 2-4.

Honestly my pick here is based on what the number is when you go to the ticket counter. Right now I’m seeing offshore numbers anywhere from -6.5 for the Falcons to -7.5. Depending on what side of the key number of seven the number is, will be my pick on this game. Right now the book I normally use is at -7.5 for the Falcons, so I will make this free pick on the Rams getting just over a touchdown. 


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