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Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs Free Pick 10/6/13

Kansas City Chiefs (4-0) at Tennessee Titans (3-1)

NFL Football: Sunday, October 6, 2013 at 1:00 pm (LP Field)

The Line: Tennessee Titans +3 -- Over/Under: 40.5 See the Latest Odds


The Kansas City Chiefs hope to stay unbeaten on Sunday as the Chiefs face the Titans in Tennessee.

The Tennessee Titans improved to 3-1 on the season last Sunday as the Titans defeated the New York Jets 38-13.  Tennessee has been one of the surprises of the NFL season so far, but this win was a costly one for the Titans as their quarterback, Jake Locker went down with a hip injury.  Starting in place of Locker will be ex-Bills quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick.   Fitzpatrick has struggled throughout his career, but he does have experience, starting in over 60 games in his career.  Tennessee will probably need to lean heavily on their defense here on Sunday if they are to get the win against the Chiefs.  The Titans do have one of the better defensive units in the league currently, as the Titans are ranked 10th against the pass, and 11th against the run.  These stats are also against some solid teams, like the Texans (who Tennessee lost to in OT) and the Chargers, who the Titans beat the following week, giving San Diego their only loss of the season.  The Titans match up pretty well with the Chiefs here, as the Titans are holding opponents to 5.1 yards per play, and just 17.2 points per game on average this season, even with a tougher slate thus far.

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Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs Free Pick 10/6/13

Don McPeak-USA TODAY Sports

The Kansas City Chiefs were expected to be better this season, but K.C. is showing us just how much better, as the Chiefs are off to a solid 4-0 start.  The Chiefs don’t dazzle you, but Kansas City has an excellent defense, that is holding opponents to just 10.2 points per game so far.  Kansas City also ranks sixth in the league in points allowed per play, at 4.8.  The Chiefs offense has found new life under Head Coach Andy Reid, and ex 49er signal caller Alex Smith.  Smith is the ultimate game manager, and while he has earned the nickname in the NFL as “captain check down” Smith doesn’t make the big mistake, always keeping his team in games.  Another aspect of Smith that is often overlooked is his mobility.  Smith can beat you outside of the pocket, and with ex-Nevada coach Chris Ault on the Chiefs staff as an advisor, the Chiefs have even ran some read-option with Smith.

As a favorite the past three seasons, the Chiefs are just 2-6 against the spread.  So far this season Kansas City is 3-1 against the spread, and 2-0 against the spread on the road.  The Titans are 3-0 against the spread this season, going 1-0 against the number at home.

My play here is going to be on the Titans.  I really like what Andy Reid has done with this Chiefs team, but I think Kansas City comes down a bit this week.  Tennessee has one of the better defenses in the league right now, putting up better numbers than the Chiefs against tougher competition.  I am concerned a bit about Fitzpatrick under center for the Titans, but he has experience, and as long as he avoids the big mistake the Titans should cover this field goal spread, if not win outright against K.C. on Sunday.

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