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New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Pick, Odds, Prediction 12/29/13

Buffalo Bills (6-9) at New England Patriots (11-4)

NFL Football: Sunday, December 29, 2013 at 4:25 pm (Gillette Stadium)

The Line: New England Patriots -9.5 -- Over/Under: 47 See the Latest Odds


The New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills close out their 2013 regular season schedules as they face off in a week 17 NFL AFC East battle.

The New England Patriots have clinched the AFC East title but with a win or a Cincinnati loss they can wrap up the number two seed in the AFC playoffs and get a bye in the first round. The Patriots have had their share of bumps along the way this season but they still manage to get it done. Tom Brady has completed 60.6 percent of his passes with 24 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while throwing for over 4,200 yards. Steven Ridley is a wek link at RB rushing for 699 yards while LeGarrette Blount is seeing an increased role. Julian Edelman has 96 receptions and Danny Amendola has 53 receptions as the Patriots had to change offensive plans without Rob Gronkowski for most of the season and Aaron Hernandez looking at several life sentences or worse. Dont’a Hightower has 91 tackles, Brandon Spikes has 85 tackles, and Chandler Jones has 11.5 sacks. The Patriots offense is averaging 27.3 points and 384.7 yards per game while defensively they are allowing 21.2 points and 371.7 yards per game. The Patriots are no strangers to meaningful games and the playoffs.

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New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills Pick, Odds, Prediction 12/29/13

Kevin Hoffman-USA TODAY Sports

The Buffalo Bills are very much a work in progress and have been one of the more inconsistent teams this season. At time the Bills appear over matched and play up to their opponent while at other times they have lost what appears to be winnable games. E.J. Manuel missed last week’s game and he is questionable this week and if he is unable to go it will be Thad Lewis who is 2-1 as a starter this year. Fred Jackson has rushed for 836 yards and eight touchdowns and C.J. Spiller has rushed for 822 yards and both have been effective catching passes out of the backfield. Steve Johnson missed last week’s game after the passing of his mother and he is questionable to return this week, Scot Chandler has 50 receptions, and Robert Woods has 39 receptions and has shown a world of ability. Kiko Alonso has 145 tackles, Aaron Williams has 82 tackles, and Mario Williams has 13 sacks. The Bills average 21.3 points and 334.5 yards per game while defensively they allow 23.6 points and their opponents gain 330.1 yards. The Bills look to be close to putting it all together.

New England is 5-1 against the spread in their last six home games, 1-4 against the spread against the AFC East, and 0-4 against the spread following a win. Buffalo is 5-2 against the spread against a team with a winning record, 5-2 against the spread against the AFC, and 2-7 against the spread in their last nine road starts. The road team is 12-5 against the spread in the last 17 meetings of these two.

Like most divisional games these teams know each other well and points may be tough to come by so my free pick is on the under. My stronger play is on the winner against the spread and I will post that pick in the Premium Area as well as on the App. 

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