AFC Wildcard Playoff Indianapolis Colts vs. Kansas City Chiefs Pick, Odds, Prediction 1/4/14
Kansas City Chiefs (11-5) at Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
NFL Football: Saturday, January 4, 2014 at 4:35 pm (Lucas Oil Stadium)
The Line: Indianapolis Colts -2.5 -- Over/Under: 46.5 See the Latest Odds
The Indianapolis Colts and the Kansas City Chiefs face off on Saturday in an AFC Wildcard playoff game.
The Indianapolis Colts are the AFC South Champions and that distinction earned them a home playoff game for the opening round. The Colts have combined a physical style of play along with a workmanlike effort to beat some of the better teams in the NFL including a beat down of their opponent this week, the Kansas City Chiefs. Andrew Luck is quickly emerging into one of the top QB’s in the NFL completing 60.2 percent of his passes for 3,822 yards with 23 touchdowns and nine interceptions. Trent Richardson struggled to move the ball on the ground averaging just .29 yards per carry but he is an effective pass blocker while Donald Brown led the Colts rushing for 537 yards and a 5.3 yard per carry averaging. With Reggie Wayne lost for the year with an injury T.Y. Hilton stepped up his game catching 82 passes while Coby Fleener caught 52. Overall the offense averaged 24..4 points per game and 341.8 yards per game which put them in the middle of the pack in the NFL. The Colts changed defensive schemes allowing Robert Mathis to stand up and rush the passer resulting in 19.5 sacks for him while Jerrell Freeman had 126 tackles and 5.5 sacks and Antoine Bethea had 110 tackles. The Colts defense had 42 sacks and 15 interceptions and Indy had a plus 13 turnover ratio. The Colts defense allowed 21 points and 357.1 yards per game. Indianapolis had wins over Seattle, Denver, and San Francisco among the wins they had this season.
John Rieger-USA TODAY Sports
The Kansas City Chiefs went from drafting first in the NFL Draft with the worst record in football to being the number five seed in the AFC Playoffs. Andy Reid showed that he still has something to offer as a Head Coach in the NFL. Another castoff, QB Alex Smith completed 60.6 percent of his passes for 3,313 yards with 23 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Jamaal Charles had a monster year rushing for 1,287 yards and he caught 70 passes out of the backfield. Dwayne Boowe had 57 catches and Dexter McCluster had 53 as the Chiefs offense looked nothing like it did a year ago. The Kansas City offense averages 26.9 points per game and 337.2 yards. Defensively this was the year of the turnover in KC as the Chiefs were plus 18 in turnover ratio. Derrick Johnson led the defense with 107 tackles and 4.5 sacks, Eric Berry had 74 tackles and three interceptions, and Tamba Hali and Justin Houston each had 11 sacks. The Chiefs defense allowed just 19.1 points per game and 367.8 yards. The Chiefs struggled somewhat down the stretch with all of their five losses coming in the second half of the season.
Indianapolis is 4-0 against the spread following a win by more than 14 points, 5-1 against the spread in their last six home games, and 7-1 against the spread against the AFC. Kansas City is 7-1 against the spread in their last eight road games, 2-5 against the spread following a loss, and 2-6 against the spread against a team with a winning record. The road team has covered the point spread in four of the last five meetings of these two.
It is important to note that these two teams met just a few weeks back on December 22nd in Kansas City with the Colts dominating 23-7. Kansas City led early 7-3 but the Colts led at the half 13-7 and the game was never close again. The Chiefs turned the ball over four times in the first meeting while the Colts didn’t turn the ball over. The Colts also sacked Alex Smoth five times in the win while the Chiefs got to Andrew Luck just once and really these few things were what decided the game and made it a one sided affair.
This is going to be a hard hitting game and I look for it to come in under the number and that is my free pick. I also have a pick on who will cover the spread and I will post that in the Premium Area as well as on the App.
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