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Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Free Pick, Odds, Prediction 9/14/14

Miami Dolphins (1-0) at Buffalo Bills (1-0)

NFL Football: Sunday, September 14, 2014 at 1:00 pm (Ralph Wilson Stadium)

The Line: Buffalo Bills PK -- Over/Under: 43.5 See the Latest Odds


The Miami Dolphins, fresh off their win over the Patriots, head to Buffalo on Sunday to face off against the Bills. 

The Buffalo Bills started off their season on a strong note Sunday, defeating the Chicago Bears on the road, 23-20 in overtime.  The Bears took an early lead over the Bills, but Buffalo responded quickly, taking a ten point 17-7 lead into the locker room.  The Bears answered again, tying things up with two scores in the third quarter.  The Bears and Bills exchanged field goals in the fourth quarter, and just a few minutes into overtime, the Bills got the win with a 27 yard field goal by Carpenter.  E.J. Manuel played well, but it is clear that there are still holes in his game.  One thing that has me concerned for the Bills here is their line play,  Buffalo didn’t grade out well on either side of the ball, and if Buffalo has trouble controlling the line of scrimmage against the Dolphins, it could be a long day.

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Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins Free Pick, Odds, Prediction 9/14/14


The Miami Dolphins started off their 2014 campaign strong, with a solid win over the New England Patriots.  The Dolphins trailed by ten at the half, and it looked like New England was positioning themselves for yet another win, but the Dolphins coaching staff just plain out coached Belichick and the Pats in the second half, which needs to be mentioned.  Tannehill was far from perfect on the day, but he made the plays he needed to, including two touchdown passes against one pick.  The running game was also solid for the Dolphins as Miami did a nice job on the line.  The pass protection was definitely spotty at times, but if this group can continue to open up holes like they did in week one against the Pats, the Dolphins will be a tough out this season.  

In the past three seasons, the Dolphins are 5-2 against the spread as a road underdog of three points or less, and Miami is 6-2 against the spread in their last eight games in the month of September.  The Bills are 7-3 against the spread in their last ten games as a favorite (now down to PK), and Buffalo is 10-4 against the spread in their last 14 games at home.  At the time of writing, the Dolphins are getting most of the action here, with roughly 82 percent of the tickets being placed on Miami.

Tough call here, and personally I am likely to lay off this one.  Neither quarterback looked all that impressive in week one, and it could come down to whichever quarterback makes the fewest mistakes on Sunday.  I favor the Dolphins here slightly, mostly because I think Miami will be able to pound the ball against this Bills D, which should take some pressure off Tannehill, which could very well be the difference.  I’m giving this one a confidence grade of 2 out of 5, and like I said above, this one is a no play for me. 

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