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Denver Broncos at New York Jets 10/12/14 NFL Pick, Odds, Prediction

Denver Broncos (3-1) at New York Jets (1-4)

NFL Football: Sunday, October 12, 2014 at 1:00 pm (MetLife Stadium)

The Line: New York Jets +6 -- Over/Under: 46 See the Latest Odds


The Denver Broncos look to continue rolling at the expense of the reeling New York Jets on Sunday afternoon at 1pm ET.

The Denver Broncos are 3-1 to start the year as QB Peyton Manning is cruising along completing 66% of his passes for 1,293 yards and 12 TDs on the season.  Manning threw for four TDs in last week’s 41-20 win over the Cardinals although he did also throw his second and third interceptions of the season as well which never really put the result in jeopardy.  The Broncos offense is loaded with weapons as WR Emmanuel Sanders leads the team in receiving yards with 435 on 32 catches, Demaryius Thomas has 21 receptions for 367 yards and three TDs and Julius Thomas leads the team in receiving touchdowns with seven to complement his 20 grabs for 226 yards.   Wes Welker has only played two games this year but the Jets are the perfect opponent for him to break out against as the former Patriot has caught five or more passes in each of his last nine games facing the Jets while averaging an impressive 88.6 yards per game.  Running back Ronnie Hillman will assume the starting running back role for Denver after Montee Ball suffered a groin injury that will require surgery.

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Denver Broncos at New York Jets 10/12/14 NFL Pick, Odds, Prediction


The Broncos defense is statistically sound against the run ranking 7th in the league in yards allowed while struggling a bit more against the pass while ranking 23rd in the league.  The pass defense statistics need to be taken with a grain of salt though as the Denver offense has a tendency to put their opponent in the hole early, forcing more passing plays.   The Broncos can get to the quarterback with 11 sacks on the year as specialists Von Miller (4 sacks) and DeMarcus Ware (3 sacks) will both be tough for the Jets to handle.  Safety Rahim Moore has two of Denver’s three INTs on the year.

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 The New York Jets won their opening contest at home against the Raiders but have fallen flat on their face since as they enter this week with a woeful 1-4 record.  The misery hit a peak last week as the Jets were shut out in San Diego 31-0, prompting head coach Rex Ryan to insert Michael Vick at QB in replacement of regular starter Geno Smith.   Despite Smith’s struggles, the second year QB is expected to lead the team this weekend despite a 58% completion percentage on the year with six INTs thrown compared to four TDs.  Of course Smith’s success could hinge on the availability of former Broncos receiver Eric Decker, who missed last week’s game but leads the Jets in receiving yards with 204 on 14 catches with 2 TDs.  The Jets biggest strength on offense is actually their ground game which ranks 6th in the league while averaging 139.2 yards per game as Chris Ivory and Chris Johnson are a solid tandem if the passing game can manage to simply play average. 

The Jets defense can stop the run ranking 6th in the league in yards allowed, but the team can’t stop the pass or stop teams from scoring with a young secondary that has just one interception.  The Jets can threaten getting to Peyton Manning though as they enter this contest tied for the most sacks in the league with 17 – LB Calvin Pace has 3.5, DE Muhammad Wilkerson has three and DE Sheldon Richardson also has three.

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The Broncos are a prime candidate for a moneyline parlay or a teaser that drops the spread to 2.5, but the full game spread is much less certain of a proposition as Denver is such a public team that they are just 1-2 ATS as a favorite this year with that first win coming last week. I don’t see the Jets doing much on offense and the only outlet they have to make this respectable is to come up with a defensive gameplan to frustrate Manning which has me looking to the under.  

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