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Packers at Dolphins NFL Pick, Odds, Prediction 10/12/14

Green Bay Packers (3-2) at Miami Dolphins (2-2)

NFL Football: Sunday

The Line: Miami Dolphins +3 -- Over/Under: 49 See the Latest Odds


The Miami Dolphins host the Green Bay Packers for an inter-conference matchup in week six of the NFL season.

The Green Bay Packers are 3-2 on the year and finally seem to have their offense untracked after back-to-back dominant performances within the NFC North against the Bears and Vikings.  QB Aaron Rodgers is completing 67% of his passes for 1,155 yards with 12 TDs and just one INT.  WR Jordy Nelson has been the primary beneficiary with 34 for 525 yards and four TDs and Randall Cobb has been a nice complement with 24 catches for 273 and six TDs.  Rodgers may be in for a challenge in this contest as his former offensive coordinator Joe Philbin is the head coach of the Dolphins.  Green Bay will hope to mitigate that familiarity by staying balanced in this contest with RB Eddie Lacy, who is coming off his first 100 yard game of the season last week.

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Packers at Dolphins NFL Pick, Odds, Prediction 10/12/14


The Packers defense ranks seventh in the league in passing yards allowed but dealing with the run has been a disastrous challenge as the team ranks last in the league while conceding 163 yards per game.  The Packers can get to the quarterback with 12 sacks on the year and they’ve also proven opportunistic while collecting seven interceptions and recovering three fumbles.

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The Miami Dolphins were on a bye last week as they enter this game with a 2-2 record after issuing a beatdown to the Raiders in London in week four.  QB Ryan Tannehill is completing 60% of his passes for 902 yards with six TDs and three interceptions.  WR Mike Wallace leads the team with 20 catches for 246 yards and three TDs, Brian Hartline has 16 catches for 161 yards and a TD and Charles Clay and Jarvis Landry each have 111 yards on the year.  In the backfield Lamar Miller has rushed for 277 yards with 2 TDs and Knowshon Moreno rushed for 134 yards in week one and is expected to return to action this week after recovering from an elbow injury.  The Dolphins should also receive a boost with the return of center Mike Pouncey who has been out all four games this year with a hip injury.

The Dolphins are a solid team defensively ranking 9th in passing yards allowed and 12th in rushing yards allowed but they’ve honestly yet to face a potent aerial attack with the Patriots in week one having been in adjustment mode with a limited Gronkowski.   The Dolphins can get to the quarterback though with 11 sacks on the year and they’ve also collected three interceptions and recovered five fumbles.

With the Packers receiving 74% of spread bets as of Saturday afternoon and the line actually dropping to 2.5 at some books I am taking a shot with the Dolphins here as a home dog.  The Dolphins have had extra time to prepare and Philbin knows Rodgers well which should enable Miami to be competitive in this matchup.

Follow Brian Fitz on Twitter @_BrianFItz_

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