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Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 10/2/16 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Denver Broncos (3-0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-2)

NFL Football: Sunday, October 2, 2016 at 4:05 pm (Raymond James Stadium)

The Line: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3 -- Over/Under: 43 See the Latest Odds


The Denver Broncos put their perfect record on the line as they travel to Raymond James Stadium to take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in week 4 NFL action.

The Denver Broncos improved to 3-0 with a 29-17 road victory over the Cincinnati Bengals. Trevor Siemian easily had his best game as a starter, logging 312 yards and 4 touchdowns on 23 of 35 passing. C.J. Anderson had his least productive game of the young season as he only managed 37 yards on 14 carries in what was a quiet effort all around for the Denver backfield. Emmanuel Sanders led the Broncos aerial attack with 9 receptions for 117 yards and 2 touchdowns, tops for all 3 categories. Demaryius Thomas added 100 yards and a touchdown on 6 catches, however that touchdown was negated by a fumble forced by Cincinnati defensive back Adam Jones. On the defensive side of the ball, Denver held the Bengals to 332 yards of total offense, highlighted by 3 sacks from Shane Ray and Von Miller adding one of his own to go along with a Will Parks interception of Bengals QB Andy Dalton and a fumble recovery from Shiloh Keo. Denver will hope to slow down a young Tampa Bay offense that ranks in the top 10 in multiple offensive categories.

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Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 10/2/16 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction


The Tampa Bay Buccaneers fell to 1-2 following a 37-32 defeat to the visiting Los Angeles Rams. Jameis Winston completed 36 of his 58 pass attempts for 405 yards, 3 touchdowns and an interception. Charles Sims led the Bucs with 55 yards on 13 carries including a 2nd quarter 1-yard blast into the end zone. Sims also added 6 receptions out of the backfield for 69 yards, but it was receiver Mike Evans who led Tampa Bay with 10 receptions for 132 yards and a touchdown. Adam Humphries followed suit with 9 catches for 100 yards of his own. Cameron Brate made use of his first start of the season, in for the recently released Austin Seferian-Jenkins, hauling in 5 passes for 45 yards and a pair of receiving touchdowns. Defensively, the Bucs allowed the Rams to rack up 320 yards of total offense, their lowest total by any opponent this season and it still wasn’t enough as Los Angeles seemed to overwhelm the Bucs in the second half. Lavonte David logged Tampa Bay’s only sack of the afternoon while fellow linebacker Kwon Alexander picked off Rams QB Case Keenum.

Denver is 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in the month of October while the under is 7-3 in their last 10 road games against a team with a losing home record. Tampa Bay is 18-41-1 ATS in their last 60 home games and 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall while the over is 14-3 in their last 17 games in the month of October. Denver is 0-3-2 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these two teams.

Until this Denver defense can be figured out, I can’t go against the Broncos. Siemian looks like he is finally comfortable running the offense and will be playing with some confidence. Tampa on the other hand, just allowed 37 points to a Rams team that was shutout by the 49ers and had 9 points through their first 2 games. Yikes.

This could get messy for the Bucs, so I’ll side with the low line and the Broncos.

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