Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans - 10/2/16 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction
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Tennessee Titans (1-2) at Houston Texans (2-1)
NFL Football: Sunday, October 2, 2016 at 1:00 pm (NRG Stadium)
The Line: Houston Texans -6.5 -- Over/Under: 40.5
The Houston Texans and the Tennessee Titans face off on Sunday in an AFC South NFL Week 4 battle.
The Houston Texans are 2-1 this season and had a few extra days off as they lost last Thursday to the New England Patriots. The Texans offense is averaging a NFL worst 14 points per game and 326.3 yards and they have a minus 2 turnover ratio. High priced Houston QB Brock Osweiler has completed a pedestrian 59.6 percent of his passes with 3 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. Lamar Miller paces the Texans rushing attack with 269 yards thus far and DeAndre Hopkins is the top receiver with 16 catches and 2 touchdowns and Will Fuller has 12 catches and a touchdown. The Texans defense is 7th in the NFL in point allowed at 17.7 per game and 5th in yards allowed per game at 277 and they have 1 interception, 4 fumble recoveries, and 10 sacks. Bernardrick McKinney leads the Texans defense with 29 tackles, Kareem Jackson has 18 tackles, and John Simon has 2.5 sacks. The top Texan defenders like J.J. Watt haven’t hit their stride yet but the Texans defense is one of the better units in football but they will need the offense to improve if they are going to be a factor this season.
The Tennessee Titans are 1-2 this season as they appear to have a lot of talent but can’t avoid the mistakes that are costing them games. The Titans offense is 31st in the NFL in points per game at 14 and are averaging 357.3 yards but are crippled by their minus 5 turnover ratio. Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota has completed 62.6 percent of his passes with 4 touchdowns and 4 interceptions and he has rushed for 52 yards. Demarco Murray is the Titans top rusher with 245 yards and touchdown and he has 17 receptions with two of those going for touchdowns while Tajae Sharp has 14 catches and Rishard Mathews has 10. The Titans defense has been stingy allowing 19 points and 348 yards per game with 2 interceptions and 5 sacks. Avery Williamson is Tennessee’s top tackler with 21, Da’Norris Searcy has 17 tackles, and Jason McCourty has 16 tackles. The Titans are an improved team over recent years but their inexperience is costing them the mistakes that put them in the hole each week.
Houston is 5-0 against the spread against the AFC South, 5-1 against the spread against a team with a losing record, and 6-2 against the spread in their last 8 home games. Tennessee is 1-4 against the spread in their last 5 road games, 15-36-1 against the spread against a team with a winning record, and 3-21-3 against the spread against the AFC South. The road team has covered the point spread in 5 of the last 7 meetings of these two teams.
These teams are defense first and the offenses barely seem to have a pulse and when they do come to life, they turn the ball over. Look for the first team to 17 to win this one so my free pick is the under which is set at 40.5