Miami Dolphins vs. Tennessee Titans - 10/9/16 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction
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Tennessee Titans (1-3) at Miami Dolphins (1-3)
NFL Football: Sunday, October 9, 2016 at 1:00 pm (Hard Rock Stadium)
The Line: Miami Dolphins -3.5 -- Over/Under: 44.5
The Miami Dolphins and the Tennessee Titans face off on Sunday in in a week 5 NFL matchup of 1-win teams.
The Miami Dolphins have played a rough schedule and they haven’t been able to pull off any surprise wins as they sit at 1-3 thus far. The Dolphins offense is averaging a 28th ranked 17.8 points and a 26th ranked 329.8 yards per game and they have a minus 5 turnover ratio. Miami QB Ryan Tannehill has completed 63.8 percent of his passes with 6 touchdowns and 5 interceptions and he has been sacked 11 times. Jay Ajayi is the Dolphins leading rusher with just 75 yards while Jarvis landry is their top receiver with 31 catches. The Dolphins defense is allowing 22.2 points per game and a 28th ranked 401.8 yards per game with 1 interception, 6 fumble recoveries, and 10 sacks. Reshad Jones leads the Miami defense with 40 tackles, Kiko Alonso has 38 tackles, and Xavien Howard has 28 tackles while Ndamukong Suh has 27 tackles and 2.5 sacks. The Dolphins defense has been hung out to dry by their offense and in particular pathetic play at the QB position.
The Tennessee Titans are off to a 1-3 start and while they are a team that is building it is still a disappointment. The Titans offense is averaging a NFL worst 15.5 points and just 348 yards per game and they are minus 4 in turnover ratio. Tennessee QB Marcus Mariota has completed 58.8 percent of his passes with 4 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. DeMarco Murray leads the Titans in rushing with 340 yards and 3 touchdowns and he has 19 receptions and 2 receiving touchdowns while Tajae sharp is the team leader in receptions with 16. The Tennessee defense is allowing 21 points and 350.8 yards per game with 4 interceptions and 6 sacks. Avery Williamson leads the Titans with 33 tackles, Jason McCourty and Perrish Cox each have 20 tackles, and Brian Orakpo has 4 sacks. The Titans seem to keep coming up just short and it has usually been a mistake that has cost them.
Miami is 7-19 against the spread in their last 26 games, 2-10 against the spread in their last 12 home games, and 2-12 against the spread against a team with a winning record. Tennessee is 13-34-4 against the spread in their last 51 games, 5-15-1 against the spread in their last 21 road games, and 1-6-1 against the spread following a game that they covered the point spread. The underdog has covered the point spread in 4 of the last 5 meetings of these two teams.
I expect a defensive game and that means points are going to be rare as both of these teams are in the bottom five when it comes points scored so starting with better than a field goal the play here is the Titans plus the points.