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Atlanta Falcons vs. Buffalo Bills - 10/1/17 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Buffalo Bills (2-1) at Atlanta Falcons (3-0)

NFL Football: Sunday, October 1, 2017 at 1:00 pm (Mercedes-Benz Stadium)

The Line: Atlanta Falcons -8 -- Over/Under: 48.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: CBS

The Buffalo Bills and Atlanta Falcons meet Sunday in NFL action at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

The Buffalo Bills look for their first road victory of the year to build on their 2-1 start to the NFL season. The Buffalo Bills have lost five of their last six road games. Tyrod Taylor is completing 67.1 percent of his passes for 562 yards, four touchdowns and one interception. Taylor has two or more touchdown passes in four of his last six games. Jordan Matthews and LeSean McCoy have combined for 283 receiving yards on 26 catches while Charles Clay has 13 receptions. The Buffalo Bills ground game is averaging 111.3 yards per contest, and McCoy leads the way with 140 yards on 48 carries. Defensively, Buffalo is allowing 12.3 points and 278.3 yards per game. Ramon Humber leads the Buffalo Bills with 31 tackles, Jordan Poyer has two sacks and Micah Hyde has one interception. 

Atlanta Falcons vs. Buffalo Bills - 10/1/17 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

USA TODAY Sports

The Atlanta Falcons look for another victory to start 4-0 for the second time in three years. The Atlanta Falcons have won five of their last six home games. Matt Ryan is completing 68.8 percent of his passes for 867 yards, four touchdowns and three interceptions. Ryan has two or more touchdown passes in five of his last seven games. Julio Jones and Mohamed Sanu have combined for 425 receiving yards and one touchdown while Austin Hooper has five receptions. The Atlanta Falcons ground game is averaging 118.7 yards per contest, and Devonta Freeman leads the way with 227 yards and four touchdowns. Defensively, Atlanta is allowing 22 points and 330.7 yards per game. Brian Poole leads the Atlanta Falcons with 22 tackles, Brooks Reed has two sacks and Desmond Trufant has one interception.

The Bills are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games on grass, 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win. The Falcons are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games on grass and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The over is 18-7-1 in Falcons last 26 games overall and the over is 11-4 in Bills last 15 games overall.

The Buffalo Bills are one of many teams we saw last week that surprised some folks, as they beat the Broncos outright as an underdog and are now 2-1 on the season. The Bills have a top-10 defense right now and their only loss was on the road against the Carolina Panthers by three points. However, the Falcons are coming off their second road win of the season and have combined for 64 points in their last two games. That Atlanta offense is firing on all cylinders and things seem to reach another level when they play at home. In fact, four of the Falcons last six home victories have been decided by double digits, and they’ve scored no less than 28 points i night straight home games. I’m not ready to buy into the Bills hype just yet, and I doubt Taylor and company can match what the Falcons are capable of doing inside their new dome.

I like the Falcons by double digits here.

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