Buffalo Bills at Atlanta Falcons - 10/1/17 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Buffalo Bills (2-1) at Atlanta Falcons (3-0)
NFL Football: Sunday, October 1, 2017 at 1:00 pm (Mercedes-Benz Stadium)
The Line: Atlanta Falcons -8.5 -- Over/Under: 49 See the Latest Odds
Out at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday, we’ve got Week 4 NFL action coming between the Buffalo Bills and the Atlanta Falcons.
The Bills are sitting at 2-1 on the season so far, following wins over the Jets (21-12) and Broncos (26-16) sandwiched around a loss to Carolina (9-3). In that most recent Denver game, Bills QB Tyrod Taylor carried the load on 213 yards passing and two touchdowns on a 20-of-26 line. Taylor’s main beneficiary was Jordan Matthews, who had three catches for 61 yards.
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So far this year, Taylor has 562 yards, four touchdowns and a pick, while LeSean McCoy leads the Bills rush on 140 yards from 48 attempts. Matthews is the top Buffalo receiver with 11 targets, eight receptions and 152 yards.
Over on the Falcons’ side, they’re currently 3-0 with wins over the Bears (23-17), Packers (34-23) and Lions (30-26). In that Detroit game, Atlanta QB Matt Ryan posted a 24-of-35 line for 294 yards, two touchdowns and three picks, while Devontae Freeman was the lead rusher on 21 carries for 106 yards.
Through three games, Ryan has 867 yards, four scores and three picks through the air, while Freeman is the top Atlanta rusher on 227 yards and four TDs from 52 attempts. Julio Jones is the Falcons’ leading receiver with 265 yards, 26 targets and 16 receptions.
The Bills are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win and 2-5 ATS versus a team with a winning record. Buffalo is also 2-6 ATS in their last eight games in Week 4 and the under is 4-0 in the Bills’ last four games in Week 4.
Meanwhile, the Falcons are 4-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Atlanta is also 2-6 ATS in their last eight games in Week 4 and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games on grass.
Aside from that 34-23 win over the Packers, the Falcons have had a couple of close calls this year. They beat the Bears by just six, and nearly lost to the Lions in the final seconds. As for the Bills, they’ve been better than expected through two games, though LeSean McCoy’s rushing woes are a cause for concern. The spread here is pretty thick, and I think the Bills can get in there and eke out a cover. I’ll take Buffalo.