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New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins - 12/11/17 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

New England Patriots (10-2) at Miami Dolphins (5-7)

NFL Football: Monday, December 11, 2017 at 8:30 pm (Hard Rock Stadium)

The Line: Miami Dolphins +10.5 -- Over/Under: 47.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: ESPN

The New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins meet Monday in NFL action at Hard Rock Stadium.

The New England Patriots look to build on their eight-game winning streak to chase the top seed in the AFC. The New England Patriots haven’t lost a road game since January of 2016. Tom Brady is completing 68.5 percent of his passes for 3,632 yards, 26 touchdowns and four interceptions. Brady has two or more touchdown passes in five of his last seven games. Brandin Cooks and Rob Gronkowski have combined for 1,735 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns while Danny Amendola has 46 receptions. The New England Patriots ground game is averaging 120.6 yards per contest, and Dion Lewis leads the way with 590 yards and three touchdowns. Defensively, New England is allowing 18.6 points and 375.7 yards per game. Kyle Van Noy leads the New England Patriots with 73 tackles, Trey Flowers has six sacks and Duron Harmon has three interceptions. 

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New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins - 12/11/17 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Dolphins could use another victory here after losing five of their last six games. The Miami Dolphins have split their last six home games. Jay Cutler is completing 63.9 percent of his passes for 1,837 yards, 15 touchdowns and 11 interceptions. Cutler has two or more touchdown passes in five of his last six games. Kenny Stills and Jarvis Landry have combined for 1,432 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns while DeVante Parker has 36 receptions. The Miami Dolphins ground game is averaging 84.7 yards per contest, and Kenyan Drake leads the way with 320 yards and two touchdowns. Defensively, Miami is allowing 21.7 points and 306.3 yards per game. Reshad Jones leads the Miami Dolphins with 85 tackles, Cameron Wake has eight sacks and Bobby McCain has two interceptions.

The Patriots are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 road games, 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 Monday games and 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 games overall. The Dolphins are 0-8 ATS in their last 8 Monday games, 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in December and 1-4-2 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Miami, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings and the home team is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.

The Miami Dolphins are coming off their best performance last week in a win over the Denver Broncos, a contest that could carry over some confidence into this game. Yes, the Broncos aren't the Patriots, and the Dolphins have done little outside of that game to peak your interest in backing them. However, Miami does have a history of playing New England tough when playing at home and the Pats aren't healthy coming into this game. Gronkowski is suspended, Dion Lewis is sick, Chris Hogan is just coming off a shoulder injury and Tom Brady has missed practice due to a banged up Achilles. There's reasons to be worried with all these bodies dinged up, and there is a bit of a lookahead factor here with the Steelers on deck, a game that could very well decide who gets the top seed in the AFC. I'm not saying the Dolphins win this game outright, but there's value with the points, especially with the hook on the end of the free 10 points. I'll back Miami here.

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