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Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots - 12/24/17 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Buffalo Bills (8-6) at New England Patriots (11-3)

NFL Football: Sunday, December 24, 2017 at 1:00 pm (Gillette Stadium)

The Line: New England Patriots -11.5 -- Over/Under: 47 See the Latest Odds

TV:

The New England Patriots look to build on their controversial win in Pittsburgh last weekend as they return hone to host the Buffalo Bills on Sunday.

The Bills head into enemy territory looking to pull off a massive upset victory on the road against the Patriots in Foxboro who look to lock up top spot in the AFC with a victory while Buffalo looks to keep their faint playoff hopes intact. Buffalo has been dreadful against divisional foes over the last couple of seasons and will need a massive turnaround in this spot in a game that is floating around the 11-point mark, but with the inconsistent play at quarterback and the Bills likely needing a ton of action through the air this could be a very long day for the Bills. Buffalo has had a great season from Lesean McCoy and they do still have some great pieces on defense but against Tom Brady and company on the road the Bills are going to have to play one of their best games of the season just to keep this one close.

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots - 12/24/17 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

USA TODAY Sports

The Patriots meanwhile caught a huge break in a pivotal show down with the Steelers last weekend and it looks as though the NFL’s uncertainty of what qualifies as a catch is going to benefit the Pats as they are in the driver’s seat for top spot in the AFC. New England is starting to get healthy and that is terrible news for the rest of the league as they are as dangerous and deep as any team in football and this is the time they start to heat up and they should be hitting their stride this weekend. New England will likely stack the box on McCoy and allow their secondary to go single coverage with Buffalo’s modest receiving options, and with the tandem of Malcolm Butler and former Bills standout Stephon Gilmore it could be a tough time for the Buffalo passing attack.

The Bills are 2-6 in their last eight ATS against the AFC East and 1-4 ATS in their last five on turf while the Pats are 6-1 ATS in their last seven in December and 19-7 ATS in their last 26 against the AFC. Buffalo needs a miracle here and McCoy will have to be big and while it isn’t wise to ever bet against the Patriots at home I think they will win comfortably but Buffalo stays within the inflated number.

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