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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills - 1/7/18 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Buffalo Bills (9-7) at Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)

NFL Football: Sunday, January 7, 2018 at 1:05 pm (EverBank Field)

The Line: Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5 -- Over/Under: 39.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: CBS

The Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars meet Sunday in the AFC NFL wild card game at EverBank Field.

The Buffalo Bills head into this game winning four of their last six games and look for their first playoff victory since the 1995 season. The Buffalo Bills have lost four of their last six road games. Tyrod Taylor is completing 62.6 percent of his passes for 2,799 yards, 14 touchdowns and four interceptions. Taylor has one or less touchdown passes in each of his last seven games. Charles Clay and LeSean McCoy have combined for 1,006 receiving yards and four touchdowns while Deonte Thompson has 27 receptions. The Buffalo Bills ground game is averaging 126.1 yards per contest, and McCoy leads the way with 1,138 yards and six touchdowns. Defensively, Buffalo is allowing 22.4 points and 355.1 yards per game. Preston Brown leads the Buffalo Bills with 144 tackles, Jerry Hughes has four sacks and Micah Hyde has five interceptions.  

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills - 1/7/18 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

USA TODAY Sports

The Jacksonville Jaguars head into this contest splitting their last six games and look for their first playoff victory since the 2007 season. The Jacksonville Jaguars have won their last five home games. Blake Bortles is completing 60.2 percent of his passes for 3,687 yards, 21 touchdowns and 13 interceptions. Bortles has two or more touchdown passes in four of his last five games. Keelan Cole and Marqise Lee have combined for 1,450 receiving yards and six touchdowns while Allen Hurns has 39 receptions. The Jacksonville Jaguars ground game is averaging 141.4 yards per contest, and Leonard Fournette leads the way with 1,040 yards and nine touchdowns. Defensively, Jacksonville is allowing 16.8 points and 286.1 yards per game. Telvin Smith leads the Jacksonville Jaguars with 102 tackles, Calais Campbell has 14.5 sacks and A.J. Bouye has six interceptions.

The Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass, 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games in January and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 playoff games. The Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games, 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC. The Bills are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings in Jacksonville, the underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings and the road team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings. The over is 10-4 in Jaguars last 14 home games and the under is 4-1 in Bills last 5 games on grass.

It's really tough to make a pick in this game until the status of McCoy is a little more concrete. The word is that McCoy has a decent chance of playing but won't be 100 percent. Even McCoy at 70 percent or so is huge for the Bills, as he's the straw that stirs the drink on this Bills offense and is also key in the passing game. A big play or two from him could decide this game. I'm high on the Jacksonville Jaguars and think their elite defense could help lead to a nice playoff run like we've seen from other great defensive clubs in the past. However, I'm still not buying that the Jaguars offense is consistent enough to blow teams out, and the Bills defense can more than hold their own as well, allowing 16 or less points in four of their last six games. There's a reason the total is so low, points are going to be hard to come by. Give me the points and the BIlls.

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