Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons - 9/30/18 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Photo by Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports
Cincinnati Bengals (2-1) at Atlanta Falcons (1-2)
NFL Football: Sunday, September 30, 2018 at 1:00 pm (Mercedes-Benz Stadium)
The Line: Atlanta Falcons -5.5 -- Over/Under: 48
The Cincinnati Bengals and the Atlanta Falcons will meet up at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday in NFL action.
The Bengals are coming into this one with a 2-1 record so far. Cincinnati took out the Colts 34-23 in the opener, then got a W versus their rival Ravens 34-23 before falling to the Panthers 31-21 their last time up.
In that Carolina game, Bengals QB Andy Dalton posted 352 yards with two TDs but also had four picks. Giovani Bernard led the Cincinnati rush with 61 yards and a score while Tyler Boyd had six grabs for 132 yards and one TD.
Over on the Falcons’ side, they’re sitting at 1-2 thus far. Atlanta’s Week 1 game was an 18-12 loss to the Eagles, followed up by a 31-24 victory over the Panthers. The Falcons’ most recent appearance against the Saints ended up a 43-37 OT defeat.
In the New Orleans game, Atlanta QB Matt Ryan logged 374 yards and five touchdowns, while Tevin Coleman led an anemic rush with 15 carries for 33 yards. Calvin Ridley had a great day for the Falcons with 146 yards and three scores from seven catches.
Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in their last six Week 4 games and 4-1 ATS in their last five overall. The Bengals are 15-6-2 ATS in their last 23 in September and 13-6 ATS versus a team with a losing record.
Meanwhile, the Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five following a straight-up loss and 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games. Atlanta is 2-7 ATS in their last nine in Week 4 and the over is 6-1 in their last seven Week 4 games.
Cincinnati is starting things out a little better than I had anticipated, and their offense seems to be humming along with contributions from several different players. That said, Cincinnati is still giving up a lot of points.
The same argument can be made for the Falcons, but it’s tough for anyone to contain the Saints offense when they’re running smoothly, and otherwise they haven't been too bad on that side of the ball.
All things considered, the line has come down some so I have to go with the Falcons in a comfy home game here.