Los Angeles Chargers vs. San Francisco 49ers - 9/30/18 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Photo by Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports
San Francisco 49ers (1-2) at Los Angeles Chargers (1-2)
NFL Football: Sunday, September 30, 2018 at 4:25 pm (StubHub Center)
The Line: Los Angeles Chargers -10.5 -- Over/Under: 47.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds
The San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Chargers meet Sunday in NFL action at StubHub Center.
The San Francisco 49ers look for their first road win of the season to get back to a .500 record. The San Francisco 49ers have lost seven of their last 10 road games. C.J. Beathard threw for 1,430 yards, four touchdowns and six interceptions while completing 54.9 percent of his passes in seven games last season. Beathard is likely to replace Jimmy Garoppolo, who is out for the year with a torn ACL. George Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk have combined for 298 receiving yards and one touchdown while Dante Pettis has three receptions. The San Francisco 49ers ground game is averaging 152.7 yards per contest, and Matt Breida leads the way with 274 yards and one touchdown. Defensively, San Francisco is allowing 29.7 points and 384.7 yards per game. Fred Warner leads the San Francisco 49ers with 33 tackles, DeForest Buckner has 3.5 sacks and Richard Sherman has two pass deflections.
The Los Angeles Chargers look for their first home victory of the season to get back to a .500 record. The Los Angeles Chargers have won five of their last six home games. Philip Rivers is completing 69.4 percent of his passes for 906 yards, eight touchdowns and one interception. Rivers has a combined 11 touchdown passes in his last four games. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams have combined for 408 receiving yards and four touchdowns while Melvin Gordon has 17 receptions. The Los Angeles Chargers ground game is averaging 124.3 yards per contest, and Gordon leads the way with 172 yards and two touchdowns. Defensively, Los Angeles is allowing 31 points and 392 yards per game. Denzel Perryman leads the Los Angeles Chargers with 20 tackles, Derwin James has two sacks and Kyzir White has one interception.
The 49ers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in September and 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in Week 4. The Chargers are 9-21 ATS in their last 30 home games, 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games in September and 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. The 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings and the road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Four of the six losses last season with Beathard at quarterback resulted in losses by at least 10 points. The Chargers are doing a fine job of producing offensively, but the defense could improve, especially a run defense that's currently ranked 24th in the league. The 49ers have covered three of their last four games when a double-digit underdog. The Los Angeles Chargers have failed to cover four of their last five games as double-digit favorites. I'm not backing the 49ers and Beathard, but I'm not eating big chalk with a Chargers team that either loses games they shouldn't or plays in games down to the wire. Instead, I'll side with the over. All three of the 49ers games this season have produced at least 40 points, and that's with Garoppolo playing below expectations. The Chargers have scored at least 28 points in six of their last 10 games and are averaging 32.2 points in their last five home games. Expect some fireworks. Give me the over.