Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots - 9/30/18 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Photo by Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports
Miami Dolphins (3-0) at New England Patriots (1-2)
NFL Football: Sunday, September 30, 2018 at 1:00 pm (Gillette Stadium)
The Line: New England Patriots -6.5 -- Over/Under: 48 Click Here for the Latest Odds
The Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots meet Sunday in NFL action at Gillette Stadium.
The Miami Dolphins look for an improbable 4-0 start to the season to take complete control of the AFC East. The Miami Dolphins have lost five of their last six road games. Ryan Tannehill is completing 73 percent of his passes for 687 yards, seven touchdowns and two interceptions. Tannehill has two or more touchdown passes in seven of his last eight games. Kenny Stills and Albert Wilson have combined for 326 receiving yards and five touchdowns while Jakeem Grant has nine receptions. The Miami Dolphins ground game is averaging 98.7 yards per contest, and Kenyan Drake leads the way with 104 yards and one touchdown. Defensively, Miami is allowing 17.3 points and 377.3 yards per game. Kiko Alonso leads the Miami Dolphins with 34 tackles, Robert Quinn has one sack and Xavien Howard has three interceptions.
The New England Patriots haven’t lost three straight regular season games in over 15 years. The New England Patriots have won each of their last seven home games. Tom Brady is completing 64 percent of his passes for 644 yards, six touchdowns and two interceptions. Brady has two or more touchdown passes in nine of his last 14 games. Rob Gronkowski and James White have combined for 314 receiving yards and three touchdowns while Phillip Dorsett has 12 receptions. The New England Patriots ground game is averaging 97.7 yards per contest, and Rex Burkhead leads the way with 86 yards on 24 carries. Defensively, New England is allowing 25.7 points and 406.3 yards per game. Stephon Gilmore leads the New England Patriots with 17 tackles, Deatrich Wise Jr. has 2.5 sacks and Kyle Van Noy has one interception.
The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in September, 2-5-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC East and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games. The Patriots are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 vs. AFC, 35-16-2 ATS in their last 53 home games and 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Dolphins are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 meetings in New England, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings and the favorite is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
While the national media isn't giving the Miami Dolphins much credit saying they haven't played anybody, they're playing some good football on both sides. Tannehill has become a difference maker at quarterback and is spreading the ball around, while the Dolphins defense has created seven interceptions and six sacks. The Dolphins are a balanced football team at the moment. The New England Patriots don't look like themselves at all, as the defense continues to get gashed and Brady doesn't have a receiver who can get open. Teams are doubling Gronkowski and forcing other receivers to beat them, and it hasn't worked yet. The Dolphins have a history of playing the Pats close and have won four of the last nine meetings outright. Based on what we've seen a few weeks into the season, I have to side with the Dolphins and the points here.