Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots - 10/4/18 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots - 10/4/18 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction Photo by Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

Indianapolis Colts (1-3) at New England Patriots (2-2)

NFL Football: Thursday, October 4, 2018 at 8:20 pm (Gillette Stadium)

The Line: New England Patriots -10.5 -- Over/Under: 53.5 Click Here for the Latest Odds

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The Indianapolis Colts and the New England Patriots will kick off the week’s NFL action on “Thursday Night Football” from Gillette Stadium. 

The Colts enter this game with a 1-3 record overall. Indianapolis opened things up with a loss to the Bengals 34-23, then got their lone win over the Redskins 21-9. In their last two appearances, the Colts have lost to the Eagles 20-16 and the Texans 37-34 in OT. 

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In the Houston game, Indianapolis QB Andrew Luck posted 464 yards and four touchdowns, with TY Hilton bagging most of the work on four grabs for 115 yards. Jordan Wilkins led the Indy rush on 16 yards from eight carries. 

Over on the Patriots’ side, they’re sitting at a mildly-surprising 2-2 right now. New England posted a 27-20 win over the Texans in Week 1, then lost to the Jaguars 31-20 and the Lions 26-10 before thrashing the Dolphins 38-7 this past Sunday. 

In that Miami game, Pats QB Tom Brady put up 274 yards, three scores and two picks, while Sony Michel led the rush on 112 yards and a score from 25 carries. James White posted 68 yards and a TD through the air with another 44 yards and a score on the ground. 

The Colts are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 Thursday games and 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games in Week 5. Indianapolis is 35-16 in their last 51 games following a straight-up loss and 2-6 ATS in their last eight versus the AFC. 

Meanwhile, the Patriots are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games in Week 5 and 8-2 ATS versus a team with a losing record. New England is also 21-7 ATS in their last 28 versus the AFC and 30-12 ATS in their last 42 overall. 

The Colts flexed their pass-game muscle in the Houston matchup, and very nearly pulled out a big comeback victory. The best compliment you can give a floundering Indianapolis team right now is noting the fact that they’ve been competitive in each of their last three games, with a combined seven-point margin in their latest two losses. 

As for the Patriots, reports of their demise have been greatly exaggerated. Most people had left them for dead after that ugly Lions loss, but New England made themselves relevant again by beating up on Miami and it appears they’ve returned to form. 

The Colts may well be able to hang around for a little while here, but games at Gillette almost always go the Pats’ way, no matter what their record looks like. If not for the double-digit line here I would surely take the Patriots, but at +10.5 and above I think the Colts have a better chance of sneaking in there. 

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Andrew’s Pick Indianapolis Colts +10.5

The pick in this article is the opinion of the writer, not a Sports Chat Place site consensus.