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New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts - 10/4/18 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Indianapolis Colts (1-3) at New England Patriots (2-2)

NFL Football: Thursday, October 4, 2018 at 8:20 pm (Gillette Stadium)

The Line: New England Patriots -10 -- Over/Under: 51.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: FOX, NFL

The Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots meet Thursday in NFL action at Gillette Stadium.

The Indianapolis Colts need a victory here to save their season and rebound from their rough 1-3 start. The Indianapolis Colts have lost six of their last eight road games. Andrew Luck is completing 67.2 percent of his passes for 1,126 yards, nine touchdowns and three interceptions. Luck has two or more touchdown passes in 10 of his last 12 games. T.Y. Hilton and Ryan Grant have combined for 482 receiving yards and three touchdowns while Eric Ebron has 17 receptions. The Indianapolis Colts ground game is averaging 72 yards per contest, and Jordan Wilkins leads the way with 136 yards on 38 carries. Defensively, Indianapolis is allowing 25 points and 377.3 yards per game. Darius Leonard leads the Indianapolis Colts with 54 tackles, Margus Hunt has four sacks and Anthony Walker has one interception. 

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New England Patriots vs. Indianapolis Colts - 10/4/18 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports

The New England Patriots look for their third home victory of the season to get a game above a .500 record. The New England Patriots have lost four home games since the start of the 2016 season. Tom Brady is completing 64.4 percent of his passes for 918 yards, nine touchdowns and four interceptions. Brady has two or more touchdown passes in 10 of his last 15 games. Rob Gronkowski and James White have combined for 426 receiving yards and four touchdowns while Phillip Dorsett has 16 receptions. The New England Patriots ground game is averaging 117 yards per contest, and Sony Michel leads the way with 196 yards and one touchdown. Defensively, New England is allowing 21 points and 347.8 yards per game. Kyle Van Noy leads the New England Patriots with 20 tackles, Deatrich Wise Jr. has 2.5 sacks and Stephon Gilmore has one interception.

The Colts are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 Thursday games, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games and 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. AFC. The Patriots are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 home games, 21-7 ATS in their last 28 vs. AFC and 8-2 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. The Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings, the home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings and the underdog is 15-6-2 ATS in their last 23 meetings.

The Colts can't seem to get stops when playing at home, and they blew the game against the Houston Texans when they decided to trade a tie for a guaranteed loss by going for it on fourth down. The good news is Luck is coming off his best game since his return and his play gives the Colts a chance to win despite the other issues across the board. The New England Patriots looked good for the first time this season last week, and the offense does get a big boost with the return of Julian Edelman. The Indianapolis Colts have covered four of their last six games when a double-digit underdog. The New England Patriots have covered 12 of their last 15 games when a double-digit favorite. When you add the fact the Colts are likely without their top weapon in T.Y. Hilton, taking the Pats to win this game in blowout fashion is probably the only bet from a side point of view. However, I'm siding with the over. The Colts have the second most pass attempts in the league and we know what the Patriots can do when healthy offensively. Also, each of the last eight games between the Pats and Colts have produced at least 52 points. You have to go back to 2008 for a low-scoring game between these two teams.

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