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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars - 10/7/18 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1) at Kansas City Chiefs (4-0)

NFL Football: Sunday, October 7, 2018 at 1:00 pm (Arrowhead Stadium)

The Line: Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 -- Over/Under: 48.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: CBS

The Jacksonville Jaguars and Kansas City Chiefs meet Sunday in NFL action at Arrowhead Stadium.

The Jacksonville Jaguars look for their second road win of the season to build on their lead in the AFC South. The Jacksonville Jaguars have split their last eight road games. Blake Bortles is completing 64.7 percent of his passes for 1,095 yards, seven touchdowns and three interceptions. Bortles has one or less touchdown passes in 11 of his last 17 games. Dede Westbrook and Keelan Cole have combined for 519 receiving yards and two touchdowns while Donte Moncrief has 12 receptions. The Jacksonville Jaguars ground game is averaging 113.5 yards per contest, and T.J. Yeldon leads the way with 205 yards and one touchdown. Defensively, Jacksonville is allowing 14 points and 259.3 yards per game. Telvin Smith leads the Jacksonville Jaguars with 26 tackles, Calais Campbell has three sacks and Myles Jack has one interception.

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Kansas City Chiefs vs. Jacksonville Jaguars - 10/7/18 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

The Kansas City Chiefs look for another victory to start 5-0 for the second straight season. The Kansas City Chiefs have won five of their last six home games. Patrick Mahomes is completing 65.2 percent of his passes for 1,200 yards, 14 touchdowns and zero interceptions. Mahomes is averaging a touchdown pass every 9.8 pass attempts this season. Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce have combined for 671 receiving yards and six touchdowns while Sammy Watkins has 14 receptions. The Kansas City Chiefs ground game is averaging 113 yards per contest, and Kareem Hunt leads the way with 289 yards and three touchdowns. Defensively, Kansas City is allowing 28.8 points and 451.8 yards per game. Anthony Hitchens leads the Kansas City Chiefs with 35 tackles, James Houston has three sacks and Ron Parker has one interception.

The Jaguars are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games, 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall. The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in October and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. The road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

In a battle between an elite defense and an elite offense, it's the defense that usually has the edge and controls the game. However, the Kansas City Chiefs aren't your normal great offense, as there's weapons on top of weapons to the point it's difficult to take away certain players without getting hurt elsewhere. The Chiefs have scored no less than 27 points in all four games, take care of the football and just faced a quality defense on the road in the Denver Broncos and put up 446 yards while scoring when they needed to. There's no doubt the Jags are going to make it tough, but in a game where they need to score points, I don't have much confidence in Bortles leading the way, especially with no Leonard Fournette on the field. The Jacksonville Jaguars have covered each of their last eight games when an underdog of at least three points, and they're a tough team to turn down with free points given that defense travels. However, the Chiefs aren't a team I'm trying to step in front of until they give me a reason to. 

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