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Indianapolis Colts vs. Buffalo Bills - 10/21/18 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Buffalo Bills (2-4) at Indianapolis Colts (1-5)

NFL Football: Sunday, October 21, 2018 at 1:00 pm (Lucas Oil Stadium)

The Line: Indianapolis Colts -6.5 -- Over/Under: See the Latest Odds

TV: CBS

The Buffalo Bills and Indianapolis Colts meet Sunday in NFL action at Lucas Oil Stadium.

The Buffalo Bills look for their second road victory of the season to rebound from a rough 2-4 record. The Buffalo Bills have lost seven of their last 10 road games. Josh Allen is completing 54 percent of his passes for 832 yards, two touchdowns and five interceptions. Allen has zero touchdown passes and three interceptions in his last three games. Zay Jones and Kelvin Benjamin have combined for 345 receiving yards and two touchdowns while Charles Clay has 13 receptions. The Buffalo Bills ground game is averaging 99.5 yards per contest, and LeSean McCoy leads the way with 243 yards on 61 carries. Defensively, Buffalo is allowing 23 points and 311.7 yards per game. Tremaine Edmunds leads the Buffalo Bills with 47 tackles, Jerry Hughes has 4.5 sacks and Jordan Poyer has two interceptions. 

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Indianapolis Colts vs. Buffalo Bills - 10/21/18 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

The Indianapolis Colts look for their first home victory of the season that would snap a four-game losing streak. The Indianapolis Colts have lost six of their last seven home games. Andrew Luck is completing 64.6 percent of his passes for 1,792 yards, 16 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Luck has a combined 11 touchdown passes in his last three games. Eric Ebron and T.Y. Hilton have combined for 620 receiving yards and eight touchdowns while Ryan Grant has 26 receptions. The Indianapolis Colts ground game is averaging 83.2 yards per contest, and Jordan Wilkins leads the way with 175 yards on 44 carries. Defensively, Indianapolis is allowing 30 points and 386.8 yards per game. Darius Leonard leads the Indianapolis Colts with 63 tackles, Margus Hunt has four sacks and Anthony Walker has one interception.

The Bills are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games in October, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on fieldturf and 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss. The Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in October and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC. The Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Indianapolis, 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings and the favorite is 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings. The under is 10-4 in Colts last 14 games overall and the under is 4-0 in Bills last 4 games overall.

The Buffalo Bills are averaging just 8.6 points in their last three games and are dealing with an injury to Allen, who is questionable with an elbow injury. The Indianapolis Colts are still one of the most banged up teams in the league and are giving up an average of 34.2 points during their four-game losing streak. The Buffalo Bills have covered three of their last four games when an underdog of at least five points, all of which have come this season. The Indianapolis Colts have failed to cover four of their last five games when a favorite of at least five points. While the Colts are probably the better team, I'm not laying almost a full touchdown on the table with that Colts defense. The Bills have hung around with much better teams already this season and are still good enough defensively to give themselves a chance at covering big numbers. The Colts just aren't good enough defensively to cover big chalk, as all of their games have been back and forth contests. I want the points in my pocket.

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