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New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills - 10/29/18 NFL MNF Pick, Odds, and Prediction

New England Patriots (5-2) at Buffalo Bills (2-5)

NFL Football: Monday, October 29, 2018 at 8:15 pm (New Era Field)

The Line: Buffalo Bills +14 -- Over/Under: 44.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: ESPN

The New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills meet Monday night in NFL action at New Era Field.

The New England Patriots look to build on their four-game winning streak while starting to run away with the AFC East. The New England Patriots have split their last six road games. Tom Brady is completing 68 percent of his passes for 1,876 yards, 16 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Brady has two or more touchdown passes in seven of his last nine games. Rob Gronkowski and James White have combined for 785 receiving yards and seven touchdowns while Chris Hogan has 21 receptions. The New England Patriots ground game is averaging 120.9 yards per contest, and Sony Michel leads the way with 422 yards and four touchdowns. Defensively, New England is allowing 21 points and 389.9 yards per game. Devin McCourty leads the New England Patriots with 41 tackles, Deatrich Wise Jr. has 3.5 sacks and Jonathan Jones has two interceptions.  

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New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills - 10/29/18 NFL MNF Pick, Odds, and Prediction

David Butler II-USA TODAY Sports

The Buffalo Bills look for a major upset victory to rebound from a 2-5 record and possibly save their season. The Buffalo Bills have split their only two home games this season. Josh Allen is completing 54 percent of his passes for 832 yards, two touchdowns and five interceptions. Allen and Derek Anderson have combined for two touchdown passes and eight interceptions this season. Zay Jones and Kelvin Benjamin have combined for 443 receiving yards and two touchdowns while Charles Clay has 16 receptions. The Buffalo Bills ground game is averaging 104.6 yards per contest, and LeSean McCoy leads the way with 244 yards on 63 carries. Defensively, Buffalo is allowing 25 points and 320.9 yards per game. Tremaine Edmunds leads the Buffalo Bills with 54 tackles, Jerry Hughes has 4.5 sacks and Jordan Poyer has two interceptions.

The Patriots are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. AFC East, 15-5 ATS in their last 20 road games and 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games overall. The Bills are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC East. The Patriots are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 meetings in Buffalo, 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings and the road team is 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 meetings. The under is 5-0 in Bills last 5 games overall and the under is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 road games.

The New England Patriots are slowly starting to find their groove during this winning streak, but it's important to note that three of their five wins have come by single digits. The Buffalo Bills have scored no more than 13 points in each of their last four games and that's not going to change much until they find a quarterback who is worth a damn. The New England Patriots have covered 10 of their last 12 games when a double-digit favorite. The Buffalo Bills have covered four of their last six games when a double-digit underdog, which includes being 2-0 ATS this year. I'm not laying big chalk with a road team on a Monday night given that the crowd comes out and players have extra energy. The Bills have also thrived this season as monster underdogs. I will side with the over, however, as the Patriots could get this number by themselves with the offense clicking the way it is. The Pats have scored 38 or more points in each game during this winning streak. Give me the over.

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