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Green Bay Packers vs. Miami Dolphins - 11/11/18 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Miami Dolphins (5-4) at Green Bay Packers (3-4-1)

NFL Football: Sunday, November 11, 2018 at 4:25 pm (Lambeau Field)

The Line: Green Bay Packers -9.5 -- Over/Under: 47.5 See the Latest Odds

TV: CBS

The Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers meet Sunday in NFL action at Lambeau Field.

The Miami Dolphins look for back-to-back wins for the first time since September to remain in the AFC playoff conversation. The Miami Dolphins have lost three straight road games. Brock Osweiler is completing 63.8 percent of his passes for 1,034 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions. Osweiler and Ryan Tannehill have combined for 14 touchdown passes and eight interceptions this season. Albert Wilson and Danny Amendola have combined for 775 receiving yards and five touchdowns while Kenny Stills has 17 receptions. The Miami Dolphins ground game is averaging 103.1 yards per contest, and Frank Gore leads the way with 438 yards on 104 carries. Defensively, Miami is allowing 25 points and 394 yards per game. Kiko Alonso leads the Miami Dolphins with 83 tackles, Cameron Wake has three sacks and Xavien Howard has three interceptions.

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Green Bay Packers vs. Miami Dolphins - 11/11/18 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

The Green Bay Packers need a win after losing three of their last four games to remain in the NFC playoff conversation. The Green Bay Packers haven’t lost a regular season home game with Rodgers at quarterback since November of 2016. Aaron Rodgers is completing 60.6 percent of his passes for 2,542 yards, 15 touchdowns and one interception. Rodgers has two or more touchdown passes in six of his last nine games. Davante Adams and Jimmy Graham have combined for 1,155 receiving yards and nine touchdowns while Marquez Valdes-Scantling has 17 receptions. The Green Bay Packers ground game is averaging 105.8 yards per contest, and Aaron Jones leads the way with 350 yards and two touchdowns. Defensively, Green Bay is allowing 25.5 points and 352.4 yards per game. Blake Martinez leads the Green Bay Packers with 70 tackles, Kenny Clark has four sacks and Jaire Alexander has one interception.

The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on grass, 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games in November and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 road games. The Packers are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games in November, 3-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games overall. The over is 23-8 in Packers last 31 games overall and the under is 4-1 in Dolphins last 5 road games.

The Miami Dolphins somehow are still in the thick of the playoff race, but they have to learn how to win on the road where they're being outscored by 18 points on average. The Green Bay Packers will play their first home game in nearly a month and are about as desperate for a victory as a team can be at this point of the season. The Miami Dolphins have failed to cover six of their last nine games when an underdog of at least seven points. The Green Bay Packers have split their last eight games ATS when a favorite of at least seven points. While there's a clear difference in quarterback play and the fins have been trash on the road, this is too steep of a line for me to lay. Even with Rodgers on the field, the Packers aren't blowing teams out. Since October 8 of last year, the Packers have one double-digit victory, which came this year against the Buffalo Bills. Due to the flaws of this team as a whole, the Packers scratch and claw their way to victories. Give me the points.

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