Miami Dolphins vs. New England Patriots - 12/9/18 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction
Photo by Greg M. Cooper-USA TODAY Sports
New England Patriots (9-3) at Miami Dolphins (6-6)
NFL Football: Sunday, December 9, 2018 at 1:00 pm (Hard Rock Stadium)
The Line: Miami Dolphins +8 -- Over/Under: 48.5
The New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins meet in a week 14 AFC East division tilt in NFL action from Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
The New England Patriots will look for a win here to lock up their 10th straight AFC East division title with a win here after improving to 9-3 with a 24-10 win over Minnesota in their last outing. Tom Brady has thrown for 3,342 yards, 20 touchdowns and 8 interceptions on 65.9% passing while Sony Michel leads New England in rushing with 649 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns this season. James White leads New England in receiving with 74 catches for 659 yards and 6 touchdowns while Josh Gordon has 605 receiving yards and Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski each have 500+ receiving yards this season. Defensively, Trey Flowers and Deatrich Wise Jr. are tied for the team-high with 4.5 sacks while Devin McCourty leads New England with 49 tackles this season. As a team, New England is averaging 395.1 yards of total offense and 27.6 points per game this season.
The Miami Dolphins will look to get back above .500 after a 21-17 win over Buffalo pushed Miami back to 6-6 this season. Ryan Tannehill has thrown for 1,313 yards, 13 touchdowns and 6 interceptions on 66.3% passing while Frank Gore leads Miami with 616 rushing yards and Kenyan Drake has 439 rushing yards with 4 TDs this season. Danny Amendola leads the Dolphins with 48 catches for 469 yards while Kenny Stills has 369 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns and the aforementioned Drake has 40 grabs for 311 yards and 4 touchdowns this year. Defensively, Cameron Wake leads Miami with 4.5 sacks this season while Kiko Alonso has 3 interceptions and a team-high 68 tackles this year. As a team, Miami is averaging 302.1 yards of total offense and 20.3 points per game this season.
New England is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 division games and 17-6 ATS in their last 23 road games while the under is 5-0 in their last 5 games overall. Miami is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games and 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games against a team with a winning record while the under is 5-0 in their last 5 division games. New England is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings between these two teams but just 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these two teams in Miami.
Miami has been a tough out at home ATS, and the Patriots have struggled in Miami and considering that the home team has covered in 13 of the last 16 meetings between the two sides, there’s reason to look at the points here. However, New England has been solid on the road as a whole for a couple of years now, and are starting to get it done on the defensive end, allowing 17 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games, all 4 of those games ending up in victories. I think New England realizes what’s on the line here and would like to lock up a playoff spot as soon as possible, so while the desperation is more present with the Dolphins, I just see New England winning this one by at least 10 points so I’ll lay the points with the Patriots here.